Forli vs Livorno: prediction and stats
Serie C - Girone BGirone B - 9Kick-off on October 11, 2026 at 04:00 PM (UTC)Stadio Tullo Morgagni, Forlì
The Footlab model makes Forli the favourite at 38%, against 29% for a draw and 33% for Livorno. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 26, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Forli vs Livorno?
A very open match: only 43 Elo points separate Forli (1,785) and Livorno (1,828).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Forli have 3 wins, 7 draws and 5 defeats; Livorno have 6, 4 and 5.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 23, 2026 | Sambenedettese(away) | 2-2 | Serie C - Girone B |
| Aug 16, 2026 | Juventus U23(away) | 1-1 | Coppa Italia Serie C |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Cesena(home) | 0-0 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jul 29, 2026 | Tre Fiori(away) | 3-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Apr 26, 2026 | Perugia(home) | 1-1 | Serie C - Girone B |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 24, 2026 | Torres(home) | 2-1 | Serie C - Girone B |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Reggiana(home) | 3-1 | Coppa Italia Serie C |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Empoli(home) | 1-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Cittadella Vis Modena(home) | 2-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Apr 26, 2026 | Pontedera(away) | 2-0 | Serie C - Girone B |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 3 meetings: 1 Forli win(s), 1 draw(s), 1 Livorno win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Mar 8, 2026 | Forli 1-1 Livorno | Serie C - Girone B |
| Nov 2, 2025 | Livorno 2-3 Forli | Serie C - Girone B |
| May 18, 2025 | Livorno 3-1 Forli | Serie D - Championship Round |
How many goals should we expect?
Forli score 1.1 and concede 1.3 goals per match over their last 15; Livorno score 1.3 and concede 1.2. The model gives a 45% probability of over 2.5 goals and 51% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forli | 1.1 | 1.3 | 4 | 9/15 | 7/15 |
| Livorno | 1.3 | 1.2 | 4 | 9/15 | 8/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Forli sit 8th in Serie C - Girone B (1 points from 1 matches) and Livorno sit 5th (3 points from 1 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | Livorno | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 3 |
| 8 | Forli | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 1 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Forli vs Livorno?
- The Footlab model makes Forli the favourite at 38%, against 29% for a draw and 33% for Livorno.
- Where and when is Forli vs Livorno played?
- Forli vs Livorno is played on October 11, 2026 at 04:00 PM (UTC) at Stadio Tullo Morgagni, in the Serie C - Girone B.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 45% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.