Formentera vs Mercadal: prediction and stats
Tercera División RFEF - Group 11Group 11 - 18Kick-off on January 17, 2027 at 05:00 PM (UTC)Estadio Municipal, Sant Francesc de Formentera
The Footlab AI model makes Formentera the favourite at 63%, against 24% for a draw and 13% for Mercadal. The most likely score is 1-0.
Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome in 54.7% of the 2,381 matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Oct 14, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Formentera vs Mercadal?
Formentera starts as the favourite with a 146-point Elo edge (1,858 vs 1,712).
Computed by the Footlab AI model from our own data only, with no AI analysis.
Probable lineup for Formentera vs Mercadal
Computed by Footlab AI from our own data only: recent lineups, squads and known absences. It does not take the press or last-minute absences into account.
Formentera
Not enough data to predict the Formentera lineup.
Mercadal
Not enough data to predict the Mercadal lineup.
Computed on October 14, 2026 at 12:48 PM (UTC).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Formentera have 9 wins, 4 draws and 2 defeats; Mercadal have 4, 2 and 9.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 11, 2026 | Manacor(home) | 2-1 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 11 |
| Oct 4, 2026 | Ibiza Islas Pitiusas(away) | 0-2 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 11 |
| Sep 27, 2026 | PE Sant Jordi(home) | 3-0 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 11 |
| Sep 19, 2026 | Llosetense(away) | 0-0 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 11 |
| Sep 13, 2026 | Porreres(home) | 3-1 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 11 |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 10, 2026 | Alcúdia(away) | 0-1 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 11 |
| Oct 3, 2026 | Constància(home) | 1-3 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 11 |
| Sep 26, 2026 | Santanyí(away) | 1-1 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 11 |
| Sep 19, 2026 | Arenal(home) | 1-2 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 11 |
| Sep 12, 2026 | Inter Ibiza(away) | 2-0 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 11 |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 5 meetings: 3 Formentera wins, 2 draws, 0 Mercadal wins.
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Sep 5, 2026 | Mercadal 1-1 Formentera | Tercera División RFEF - Group 11 |
| Apr 19, 2026 | Formentera 1-0 Mercadal | Tercera División RFEF - Group 11 |
| Dec 14, 2025 | Mercadal 0-1 Formentera | Tercera División RFEF - Group 11 |
| Apr 26, 2025 | Formentera 4-0 Mercadal | Tercera División RFEF - Group 11 |
| Dec 14, 2024 | Mercadal 2-2 Formentera | Tercera División RFEF - Group 11 |
Last archived meeting: Mercadal vs Formentera on Sep 5, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Formentera score 1.7 and concede 0.9 goals per match over their last 15; Mercadal score 0.9 and concede 2.2. The model gives a 45% probability of over 2.5 goals and 42% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Formentera | 1.7 | 0.9 | 6 | 7/15 | 8/15 |
| Mercadal | 0.9 | 2.2 | 2 | 8/15 | 8/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Formentera sit 7th in Tercera División RFEF - Group 11 (11 points from 6 matches) and Mercadal sit 13th (5 points from 6 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | Formentera | 6 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 9 | 5 | 11 |
| 13 | Mercadal | 6 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 6 | 8 | 5 |
A question about Formentera vs Mercadal?
Ask Footlab AI: lineups, absences, player form, stats, how the match could unfold.
Sign-in required. No odds displayed, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab AI compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. When bookmakers publish odds for the match, their consensus is built into the calculation: that is what proved most accurate on past matches. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Formentera vs Mercadal?
- The Footlab AI model makes Formentera the favourite at 63%, against 24% for a draw and 13% for Mercadal.
- Where and when is Formentera vs Mercadal played?
- Formentera vs Mercadal is played on January 17, 2027 at 05:00 PM (UTC) at Estadio Municipal, in the Tercera División RFEF - Group 11.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab AI model gives a 45% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome (home win, draw or away win) in 54.7% of the matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing, a level comparable with the bookmakers' favourite. The comparison with bookmakers and the breakdown by competition and Elo gap are published on the accuracy page.