Fréjus St-Raphaël vs Chateauroux: prediction and stats
National 2 - Group CGroup C - 27Kick-off on May 2, 2027 at 04:00 PM (UTC)Stade Louis Hon, Saint-Raphaël
The Footlab model makes Fréjus St-Raphaël the favourite at 44%, against 27% for a draw and 29% for Chateauroux. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 25, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Fréjus St-Raphaël vs Chateauroux?
A very open match: only 12 Elo points separate Fréjus St-Raphaël (1,711) and Chateauroux (1,699).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Fréjus St-Raphaël have 5 wins, 4 draws and 6 defeats; Chateauroux have 3, 5 and 7.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Saint-Priest(home) | 3-0 | National 2 - Group C |
| May 16, 2026 | Grasse(home) | 1-0 | National 2 - Group C |
| May 9, 2026 | Bobigny(away) | 0-1 | National 2 - Group C |
| May 2, 2026 | Toulon(home) | 0-1 | National 2 - Group C |
| Apr 25, 2026 | Saint-Priest(home) | 0-0 | National 2 - Group C |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Hauts Lyonnais(away) | 0-0 | National 2 - Group C |
| May 15, 2026 | Valenciennes(away) | 2-2 | Ligue 3 |
| May 9, 2026 | Sochaux(home) | 2-1 | Ligue 3 |
| Apr 30, 2026 | Dijon(away) | 2-1 | Ligue 3 |
| Apr 24, 2026 | Fleury 91(home) | 0-2 | Ligue 3 |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 2 meetings: 1 Fréjus St-Raphaël win(s), 0 draw(s), 1 Chateauroux win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Jun 3, 2016 | Chateauroux 3-1 Fréjus St-Raphaël | Ligue 3 |
| Aug 7, 2015 | Fréjus St-Raphaël 1-0 Chateauroux | Ligue 3 |
Last archived meeting: Chateauroux vs Fréjus St-Raphaël on Jun 3, 2016
How many goals should we expect?
Fréjus St-Raphaël score 1.1 and concede 1.4 goals per match over their last 15; Chateauroux score 1.2 and concede 1.8. The model gives a 51% probability of over 2.5 goals and 55% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fréjus St-Raphaël | 1.1 | 1.4 | 4 | 6/15 | 6/15 |
| Chateauroux | 1.2 | 1.8 | 1 | 9/15 | 9/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Fréjus St-Raphaël sit 2nd in National 2 - Group C (3 points from 1 matches) and Chateauroux sit 10th (1 points from 1 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Fréjus St-Raphaël | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 3 |
| 10 | Chateauroux | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Fréjus St-Raphaël vs Chateauroux?
- The Footlab model makes Fréjus St-Raphaël the favourite at 44%, against 27% for a draw and 29% for Chateauroux.
- Where and when is Fréjus St-Raphaël vs Chateauroux played?
- Fréjus St-Raphaël vs Chateauroux is played on May 2, 2027 at 04:00 PM (UTC) at Stade Louis Hon, in the National 2 - Group C.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 51% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.