Gagra vs Aragvi Dusheti: prediction and stats
David Kipiani CupQuarter-finalsKick-off on August 26, 2026 at 04:00 PM (UTC)David Petriashvili Arena, Tbilisi
The Footlab model makes Gagra the favourite at 40%, against 23% for a draw and 37% for Aragvi Dusheti. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 24, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Gagra vs Aragvi Dusheti?
Gagra starts as the favourite with a 121-point Elo edge (1,593 vs 1,472).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Gagra have 5 wins, 5 draws and 5 defeats; Aragvi Dusheti have 8, 3 and 4.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Rustavi(away) | 0-3 | Erovnuli Liga |
| Aug 17, 2026 | Spaeri(home) | 1-1 | Erovnuli Liga |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Dinamo Batumi(away) | 2-2 | Erovnuli Liga |
| Aug 2, 2026 | Gareji(away) | 4-1 | David Kipiani Cup |
| Jul 27, 2026 | Samtskhe Akhaltsikhe(away) | 2-1 | David Kipiani Cup |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Gori(home) | 1-0 | Erovnuli Liga 2 |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Gareji(away) | 2-0 | Erovnuli Liga 2 |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Samtredia(home) | 2-4 | Erovnuli Liga 2 |
| Aug 2, 2026 | Guria(away) | 2-1 | David Kipiani Cup |
| Jul 25, 2026 | Kolkheti Poti(away) | 0-0 | David Kipiani Cup |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 2 meetings: 1 Gagra win(s), 1 draw(s), 0 Aragvi Dusheti win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Oct 1, 2020 | Gagra 2-1 Aragvi Dusheti | Erovnuli Liga 2 |
| Mar 10, 2020 | Aragvi Dusheti 0-0 Gagra | Erovnuli Liga 2 |
Last archived meeting: Gagra vs Aragvi Dusheti on Oct 1, 2020
How many goals should we expect?
Gagra score 1.2 and concede 1.3 goals per match over their last 15; Aragvi Dusheti score 1.4 and concede 1.1. The model gives a 68% probability of over 2.5 goals and 69% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gagra | 1.2 | 1.3 | 2 | 9/15 | 8/15 |
| Aragvi Dusheti | 1.4 | 1.1 | 5 | 7/15 | 5/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Gagra vs Aragvi Dusheti?
- The Footlab model makes Gagra the favourite at 40%, against 23% for a draw and 37% for Aragvi Dusheti.
- Where and when is Gagra vs Aragvi Dusheti played?
- Gagra vs Aragvi Dusheti is played on August 26, 2026 at 04:00 PM (UTC) at David Petriashvili Arena, in the David Kipiani Cup.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 68% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.