Gelbison vs Sarnese: prediction and stats
Serie D - Girone GGroup G - 21Kick-off on January 24, 2027 at 01:30 PM (UTC)Stadio Marcello Torre, Pagani
The Footlab model makes Gelbison the favourite at 48%, against 26% for a draw and 26% for Sarnese. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 25, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Gelbison vs Sarnese?
A very open match: only 88 Elo points separate Gelbison (1,811) and Sarnese (1,723).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Gelbison have 10 wins, 3 draws and 2 defeats; Sarnese have 5, 6 and 4.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| May 10, 2026 | Nissa(away) | 0-4 | Serie D - Girone I |
| May 3, 2026 | Gela(home) | 1-0 | Serie D - Girone I |
| Apr 26, 2026 | Enna(away) | 1-0 | Serie D - Girone I |
| Apr 19, 2026 | Acireale(home) | 2-1 | Serie D - Girone I |
| Apr 12, 2026 | Sancataldese(away) | 1-0 | Serie D - Girone I |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jul 30, 2026 | Cavese(away) | 0-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
| May 10, 2026 | Pompei(home) | 2-1 | Serie D - Girone H |
| May 3, 2026 | Virtus Francavilla(away) | 2-2 | Serie D - Girone H |
| Apr 26, 2026 | Francavilla(home) | 2-2 | Serie D - Girone H |
| Apr 19, 2026 | Fidelis Andria(away) | 1-2 | Serie D - Girone H |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 2 meetings: 2 Gelbison win(s), 0 draw(s), 0 Sarnese win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Jan 19, 2025 | Gelbison 3-2 Sarnese | Serie D - Girone G |
| Sep 22, 2024 | Sarnese 0-1 Gelbison | Serie D - Girone G |
How many goals should we expect?
Gelbison score 1.5 and concede 0.8 goals per match over their last 15; Sarnese score 1.4 and concede 1.3. The model gives a 53% probability of over 2.5 goals and 56% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gelbison | 1.5 | 0.8 | 6 | 7/15 | 6/15 |
| Sarnese | 1.4 | 1.3 | 4 | 9/15 | 8/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Gelbison vs Sarnese?
- The Footlab model makes Gelbison the favourite at 48%, against 26% for a draw and 26% for Sarnese.
- Where and when is Gelbison vs Sarnese played?
- Gelbison vs Sarnese is played on January 24, 2027 at 01:30 PM (UTC) at Stadio Marcello Torre, in the Serie D - Girone G.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 53% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.