Gelbison vs Sarnese: prediction and stats
Serie D - Girone GGroup G - 21Kick-off on January 24, 2027 at 01:30 PM (UTC)Stadio Marcello Torre, Pagani
The Footlab AI model makes Gelbison the favourite at 38%, against 27% for a draw and 35% for Sarnese. The most likely score is 1-1. If Gelbison wins, the most likely score is 2-1.
Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome in 54.6% of the 2,366 matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Oct 14, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Gelbison vs Sarnese?
A very open match: only 10 Elo points separate Gelbison (1,705) and Sarnese (1,715).
Computed by the Footlab AI model from our own data only, with no AI analysis.
Probable lineup for Gelbison vs Sarnese
Computed by Footlab AI from our own data only: recent lineups, squads and known absences. It does not take the press or last-minute absences into account.
Gelbison
Not enough data to predict the Gelbison lineup.
Sarnese
Not enough data to predict the Sarnese lineup.
Computed on October 14, 2026 at 07:16 PM (UTC).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Gelbison have 8 wins, 2 draws and 5 defeats; Sarnese have 8, 5 and 2.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 11, 2026 | Città di Anagni(away) | 1-3 | Serie D - Girone G |
| Oct 7, 2026 | Vigor Lamezia(away) | 2-2 | Coppa Italia Serie D |
| Oct 4, 2026 | Venafro(home) | 0-1 | Serie D - Girone G |
| Sep 27, 2026 | Paganese(away) | 3-2 | Serie D - Girone G |
| Sep 20, 2026 | Sarnese(away) | 1-3 | Serie D - Girone G |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 11, 2026 | Atletico Lodigiani(away) | 1-0 | Serie D - Girone G |
| Oct 4, 2026 | Paganese(home) | 2-1 | Serie D - Girone G |
| Sep 27, 2026 | Ossese(away) | 2-2 | Serie D - Girone G |
| Sep 20, 2026 | Gelbison(home) | 3-1 | Serie D - Girone G |
| Sep 16, 2026 | Venafro(away) | 1-0 | Serie D - Girone G |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 3 meetings: 2 Gelbison wins, 0 draws, 1 Sarnese win.
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Sep 20, 2026 | Sarnese 3-1 Gelbison | Serie D - Girone G |
| Jan 19, 2025 | Gelbison 3-2 Sarnese | Serie D - Girone G |
| Sep 22, 2024 | Sarnese 0-1 Gelbison | Serie D - Girone G |
How many goals should we expect?
Gelbison score 1.3 and concede 1.4 goals per match over their last 15; Sarnese score 1.7 and concede 1.1. The model gives a 51% probability of over 2.5 goals and 56% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gelbison | 1.3 | 1.4 | 4 | 9/15 | 10/15 |
| Sarnese | 1.7 | 1.1 | 4 | 10/15 | 9/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Gelbison sit 10th in Serie D - Girone G (7 points from 6 matches) and Sarnese sit 1st (14 points from 6 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Sarnese | 6 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 11 | 6 | 14 |
| 10 | Gelbison | 6 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 7 | 9 | 7 |
A question about Gelbison vs Sarnese?
Ask Footlab AI: lineups, absences, player form, stats, how the match could unfold.
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How does Footlab AI compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. When bookmakers publish odds for the match, their consensus is built into the calculation: that is what proved most accurate on past matches. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Gelbison vs Sarnese?
- The Footlab AI model makes Gelbison the favourite at 38%, against 27% for a draw and 35% for Sarnese.
- Where and when is Gelbison vs Sarnese played?
- Gelbison vs Sarnese is played on January 24, 2027 at 01:30 PM (UTC) at Stadio Marcello Torre, in the Serie D - Girone G.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab AI model gives a 51% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome (home win, draw or away win) in 54.6% of the matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing, a level comparable with the bookmakers' favourite. The comparison with bookmakers and the breakdown by competition and Elo gap are published on the accuracy page.