Gemert vs Excelsior Maassluis: prediction and stats
Derde DivisieRegular Season - 12Kick-off on November 7, 2026 at 05:00 PM (UTC)Sportpark Molenbroek, Gemert
The Footlab model makes Gemert the favourite at 44%, against 24% for a draw and 32% for Excelsior Maassluis. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 24, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Gemert vs Excelsior Maassluis?
A very open match: only 8 Elo points separate Gemert (1,808) and Excelsior Maassluis (1,816).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Gemert have 5 wins, 6 draws and 4 defeats; Excelsior Maassluis have 6, 3 and 6.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 23, 2026 | GOES(home) | 2-2 | Derde Divisie |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Rijnvogels(away) | 2-2 | Derde Divisie |
| Jul 7, 2026 | Helmond Sport(home) | 1-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
| May 23, 2026 | GOES(away) | 3-3 | Derde Divisie - Sunday |
| May 16, 2026 | SteDoCo(home) | 6-1 | Derde Divisie - Sunday |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Groene Ster(home) | 3-1 | Derde Divisie |
| Aug 15, 2026 | UDI '19(away) | 1-1 | Derde Divisie |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Sparta Rotterdam II(home) | 4-2 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jun 13, 2026 | Ijsselmeervogels(away) | 0-1 | Tweede Divisie |
| Jun 10, 2026 | Ijsselmeervogels(home) | 2-1 | Tweede Divisie |
How many goals should we expect?
Gemert score 2.1 and concede 1.6 goals per match over their last 15; Excelsior Maassluis score 1.5 and concede 1.3. The model gives a 66% probability of over 2.5 goals and 67% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gemert | 2.1 | 1.6 | 1 | 12/15 | 10/15 |
| Excelsior Maassluis | 1.5 | 1.3 | 2 | 11/15 | 10/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Gemert sit 10th in Derde Divisie (2 points from 2 matches) and Excelsior Maassluis sit 4th (4 points from 2 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | Excelsior Maassluis | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 2 | 4 |
| 10 | Gemert | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 4 | 4 | 2 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Gemert vs Excelsior Maassluis?
- The Footlab model makes Gemert the favourite at 44%, against 24% for a draw and 32% for Excelsior Maassluis.
- Where and when is Gemert vs Excelsior Maassluis played?
- Gemert vs Excelsior Maassluis is played on November 7, 2026 at 05:00 PM (UTC) at Sportpark Molenbroek, in the Derde Divisie.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 66% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.