Genoa vs Cagliari: prediction and stats
Serie ARegular Season - 35Kick-off on May 9, 2027 at 04:30 PM (UTC)Stadio Comunale Luigi Ferraris, Genova
The Footlab AI model makes Genoa the favourite at 43%, against 28% for a draw and 29% for Cagliari. The most likely score is 1-1. If Genoa wins, the most likely score is 1-0.
Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome in 54.6% of the 2,402 matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Oct 15, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Genoa vs Cagliari?
A very open match: only 30 Elo points separate Genoa (1,895) and Cagliari (1,925).
Computed by the Footlab AI model from our own data only, with no AI analysis.
Probable lineup for Genoa vs Cagliari
Computed by Footlab AI from our own data only: recent lineups, squads and known absences. It does not take the press or last-minute absences into account.
Genoa
3-4-2-1- 18M. Osmajić
- 32M. Frendrup
- 3K. Ehizibue
- 77M. Ellertsson
- 10Junior Messias
- 92S. El Shaarawy
- 25H. Traorè
- 5L. Østigård
- 34S. Otoa
- 22J. Vásquez
- 1J. Bijlow
Cagliari
4-3-2-1- 31P. Mendy
- 6H. Winks
- 8M. Adopo
- 4A. Romano
- 70D. Maldini
- 79Y. Massolin
- 15J. Rodríguez
- 2Zé Pedro
- 33A. Obert
- 26Y. Mina
- 1E. Caprile
Computed on October 15, 2026 at 05:17 AM (UTC).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Genoa have 5 wins, 2 draws and 8 defeats; Cagliari have 8, 4 and 3.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 10, 2026 | Fiorentina(home) | 2-1 | Serie A |
| Oct 2, 2026 | Rapid(away) | 0-2 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Sep 20, 2026 | Parma(away) | 1-2 | Serie A |
| Sep 15, 2026 | Sudtirol(home) | 1-0 | Coppa Italia |
| Sep 12, 2026 | Frosinone(home) | 1-1 | Serie A |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 11, 2026 | Juventus(home) | 1-1 | Serie A |
| Sep 19, 2026 | Udinese(away) | 1-0 | Serie A |
| Sep 12, 2026 | Atalanta(away) | 2-1 | Serie A |
| Sep 7, 2026 | Lecce(home) | 1-0 | Serie A |
| Sep 3, 2026 | Hellas Verona(home) | 1-2 | Coppa Italia |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 2 Genoa wins, 3 draws, 1 Cagliari win.
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Jan 12, 2026 | Genoa 3-0 Cagliari | Serie A |
| Nov 22, 2025 | Cagliari 3-3 Genoa | Serie A |
| Mar 7, 2025 | Cagliari 1-1 Genoa | Serie A |
| Nov 24, 2024 | Genoa 2-2 Cagliari | Serie A |
| Apr 29, 2024 | Genoa 3-0 Cagliari | Serie A |
| Nov 5, 2023 | Cagliari 2-1 Genoa | Serie A |
How many goals should we expect?
Genoa score 1.1 and concede 1.9 goals per match over their last 15; Cagliari score 1.0 and concede 0.7. The model gives a 45% probability of over 2.5 goals and 51% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Genoa | 1.1 | 1.9 | 2 | 8/15 | 7/15 |
| Cagliari | 1.0 | 0.7 | 7 | 6/15 | 5/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Genoa sit 17th in Serie A (4 points from 6 matches) and Cagliari sit 4th (13 points from 6 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | Cagliari | 6 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 6 | 3 | 13 |
| 17 | Genoa | 6 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 5 | 11 | 4 |
A question about Genoa vs Cagliari?
Ask Footlab AI: lineups, absences, player form, stats, how the match could unfold.
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How does Footlab AI compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. When bookmakers publish odds for the match, their consensus is built into the calculation: that is what proved most accurate on past matches. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Genoa vs Cagliari?
- The Footlab AI model makes Genoa the favourite at 43%, against 28% for a draw and 29% for Cagliari.
- Where and when is Genoa vs Cagliari played?
- Genoa vs Cagliari is played on May 9, 2027 at 04:30 PM (UTC) at Stadio Comunale Luigi Ferraris, in the Serie A.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab AI model gives a 45% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome (home win, draw or away win) in 54.6% of the matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing, a level comparable with the bookmakers' favourite. The comparison with bookmakers and the breakdown by competition and Elo gap are published on the accuracy page.