Inter vs Lecce: prediction and stats
Serie ARegular Season - 35Kick-off on May 9, 2027 at 04:30 PM (UTC)Stadio Giuseppe Meazza, Milano
The Footlab model makes Inter the favourite at 64%, against 23% for a draw and 14% for Lecce. The most likely score is 1-0.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 25, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Inter vs Lecce?
Inter is a heavy favourite: 2,298 Elo points against 1,921 — a 377-point gap.
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Inter have 10 wins, 5 draws and 0 defeats; Lecce have 7, 3 and 5.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Monza(home) | 4-1 | Serie A |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Real Betis(home) | 1-0 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Juventus(away) | 2-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Aug 5, 2026 | AC Milan(away) | 1-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Manchester City(away) | 1-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 23, 2026 | Venezia(away) | 2-0 | Serie A |
| Aug 17, 2026 | Palermo(away) | 0-2 | Coppa Italia |
| Aug 9, 2026 | SS Monopoli(home) | 1-0 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jul 29, 2026 | Bistrica(home) | 5-2 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jul 25, 2026 | Istra 1961(home) | 2-2 | Friendlies Clubs |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 6 Inter win(s), 0 draw(s), 0 Lecce win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Feb 21, 2026 | Lecce 0-2 Inter | Serie A |
| Jan 14, 2026 | Inter 1-0 Lecce | Serie A |
| Jan 26, 2025 | Lecce 0-4 Inter | Serie A |
| Aug 24, 2024 | Inter 2-0 Lecce | Serie A |
| Feb 25, 2024 | Lecce 0-4 Inter | Serie A |
| Dec 23, 2023 | Inter 2-0 Lecce | Serie A |
How many goals should we expect?
Inter score 2.3 and concede 1.1 goals per match over their last 15; Lecce score 1.2 and concede 1.1. The model gives a 50% probability of over 2.5 goals and 46% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Inter | 2.3 | 1.1 | 5 | 10/15 | 9/15 |
| Lecce | 1.2 | 1.1 | 5 | 5/15 | 5/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Inter sit 2nd in Serie A (3 points from 1 matches) and Lecce sit 4th (3 points from 1 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Inter | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 1 | 3 |
| 4 | Lecce | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 3 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Inter vs Lecce?
- The Footlab model makes Inter the favourite at 64%, against 23% for a draw and 14% for Lecce.
- Where and when is Inter vs Lecce played?
- Inter vs Lecce is played on May 9, 2027 at 04:30 PM (UTC) at Stadio Giuseppe Meazza, in the Serie A.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 50% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.