Geoje Citizen vs Geumsan Insam: prediction and stats
K4 LeagueRegular Season - 26Kick-off on November 8, 2026 at 05:00 AM (UTC)Geoje Stadium, Geoje
The Footlab model makes Geumsan Insam the favourite at 42%, against 24% for a draw and 34% for Geoje Citizen. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 26, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Geoje Citizen vs Geumsan Insam?
A very open match: only 29 Elo points separate Geoje Citizen (1,613) and Geumsan Insam (1,642).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Geoje Citizen have 6 wins, 2 draws and 7 defeats; Geumsan Insam have 6, 5 and 4.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jul 25, 2026 | Jincheon(away) | 1-4 | K4 League |
| Jul 15, 2026 | Busan I Park(away) | 0-4 | FA Cup |
| Jul 11, 2026 | Pyeongchang United(away) | 3-1 | K4 League |
| Jul 5, 2026 | Incheon Seogot(home) | 4-0 | FA Cup |
| Jun 20, 2026 | Sejong SA(home) | 1-2 | K4 League |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 23, 2026 | Seosan Pioneer(away) | 3-0 | K4 League |
| Jul 25, 2026 | Jungnang Chorus Mustang(home) | 1-3 | K4 League |
| Jul 11, 2026 | Jecheon Citizen(away) | 2-1 | K4 League |
| Jul 4, 2026 | Changwon City(away) | 0-3 | FA Cup |
| Jun 27, 2026 | Haman(away) | 3-1 | K4 League |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 1 meetings: 0 Geoje Citizen win(s), 0 draw(s), 1 Geumsan Insam win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| May 31, 2026 | Geumsan Insam 2-1 Geoje Citizen | K4 League |
Last archived meeting: Geumsan Insam vs Geoje Citizen on May 31, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Geoje Citizen score 1.9 and concede 1.8 goals per match over their last 15; Geumsan Insam score 1.8 and concede 1.3. The model gives a 66% probability of over 2.5 goals and 67% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Geoje Citizen | 1.9 | 1.8 | 3 | 9/15 | 12/15 |
| Geumsan Insam | 1.8 | 1.3 | 3 | 10/15 | 9/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Geoje Citizen sit 8th in K4 League (21 points from 16 matches) and Geumsan Insam sit 3rd (30 points from 18 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | Geumsan Insam | 18 | 8 | 6 | 4 | 31 | 21 | 30 |
| 8 | Geoje Citizen | 16 | 6 | 3 | 7 | 30 | 26 | 21 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Geoje Citizen vs Geumsan Insam?
- The Footlab model makes Geumsan Insam the favourite at 42%, against 24% for a draw and 34% for Geoje Citizen.
- Where and when is Geoje Citizen vs Geumsan Insam played?
- Geoje Citizen vs Geumsan Insam is played on November 8, 2026 at 05:00 AM (UTC) at Geoje Stadium, in the K4 League.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 66% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.