Aerostar Bacau vs Gheorgheni: prediction and stats
Liga III - Serie 1Group 1 - 2Kick-off on September 5, 2026 at 02:00 PM (UTC)Stadionul Aerostar, Bacău
The Footlab model makes Aerostar Bacau the favourite at 48%, against 24% for a draw and 29% for Gheorgheni. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 26, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Aerostar Bacau vs Gheorgheni?
A very open match: only 15 Elo points separate Aerostar Bacau (1,365) and Gheorgheni (1,380).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Aerostar Bacau have 6 wins, 1 draws and 8 defeats; Gheorgheni have 8, 1 and 6.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 5, 2026 | Viitorul Onesti(home) | 0-1 | Cupa României |
| Jul 29, 2026 | CSM FC Vaslui(home) | 3-1 | Cupa României |
| May 16, 2026 | Bucovina Rădăuţi(home) | 2-1 | Liga III - Serie 1 |
| May 8, 2026 | Odorheiu Secuiesc(away) | 2-6 | Liga III - Serie 1 |
| May 1, 2026 | CSM FC Vaslui(home) | 3-0 | Liga III - Serie 1 |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 12, 2026 | ASA Targu Mures(home) | 0-2 | Cupa României |
| Aug 5, 2026 | Ceahlăul Piatra Neamţ(home) | 5-0 | Cupa României |
| Jul 29, 2026 | Odorheiu Secuiesc(home) | 1-0 | Cupa României |
| May 16, 2026 | Odorheiu Secuiesc(home) | 2-1 | Liga III - Serie 1 |
| May 9, 2026 | CSM FC Vaslui(away) | 0-1 | Liga III - Serie 1 |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 3 meetings: 0 Aerostar Bacau win(s), 2 draw(s), 1 Gheorgheni win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Apr 18, 2026 | Aerostar Bacau 2-2 Gheorgheni | Liga III - Serie 1 |
| Mar 21, 2026 | Gheorgheni 4-1 Aerostar Bacau | Liga III - Serie 1 |
| Oct 24, 2025 | Aerostar Bacau 2-2 Gheorgheni | Liga III - Serie 1 |
Last archived meeting: Aerostar Bacau vs Gheorgheni on Apr 18, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Aerostar Bacau score 1.7 and concede 2.1 goals per match over their last 15; Gheorgheni score 1.4 and concede 1.3. The model gives a 63% probability of over 2.5 goals and 64% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aerostar Bacau | 1.7 | 2.1 | 1 | 10/15 | 12/15 |
| Gheorgheni | 1.4 | 1.3 | 6 | 4/15 | 7/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Aerostar Bacau sit 5th in Liga III - Serie 1 (35 points from 7 matches) and Gheorgheni sit 7th (34 points from 7 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | Aerostar Bacau | 7 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 15 | 17 | 35 |
| 7 | Gheorgheni | 7 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 8 | 11 | 34 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Aerostar Bacau vs Gheorgheni?
- The Footlab model makes Aerostar Bacau the favourite at 48%, against 24% for a draw and 29% for Gheorgheni.
- Where and when is Aerostar Bacau vs Gheorgheni played?
- Aerostar Bacau vs Gheorgheni is played on September 5, 2026 at 02:00 PM (UTC) at Stadionul Aerostar, in the Liga III - Serie 1.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 63% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.