GOR Mahia vs Nairobi United: prediction and stats
FKF Premier LeagueRegular Season - 6Kick-off on October 9, 2026 at 12:00 PM (UTC)Nyayo National Stadium, Nairobi
The Footlab model makes GOR Mahia the favourite at 48%, against 30% for a draw and 22% for Nairobi United. The most likely score is 1-0.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 24, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win GOR Mahia vs Nairobi United?
GOR Mahia starts as the favourite with a 136-point Elo edge (1,680 vs 1,544).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, GOR Mahia have 6 wins, 5 draws and 4 defeats; Nairobi United have 6, 5 and 4.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 7, 2026 | Rayon Sports(away) | 1-2 | CECAFA Club Cup |
| Aug 4, 2026 | Al Hilal Omdurman(home) | 1-1 | CECAFA Club Cup |
| Jul 30, 2026 | Al-Haras Al-Jumhuri(home) | 1-0 | CECAFA Club Cup |
| Jul 27, 2026 | Vipers(home) | 0-1 | CECAFA Club Cup |
| Jul 24, 2026 | APR(away) | 5-0 | CECAFA Club Cup |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| May 31, 2026 | GOR Mahia(away) | 1-0 | FKF Premier League |
| May 24, 2026 | Police(home) | 0-0 | FKF Premier League |
| May 16, 2026 | Posta Rangers FC(home) | 2-2 | FKF Premier League |
| May 10, 2026 | Kariobangi Sharks(away) | 0-2 | FKF Premier League |
| May 6, 2026 | Tusker(home) | 1-0 | FKF Premier League |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 3 meetings: 0 GOR Mahia win(s), 1 draw(s), 2 Nairobi United win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| May 31, 2026 | GOR Mahia 0-1 Nairobi United | FKF Premier League |
| Dec 21, 2025 | Nairobi United 1-1 GOR Mahia | FKF Premier League |
| Jun 29, 2025 | GOR Mahia 1-2 Nairobi United | Shield Cup |
Last archived meeting: GOR Mahia vs Nairobi United on May 31, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
GOR Mahia score 1.1 and concede 0.6 goals per match over their last 15; Nairobi United score 1.3 and concede 0.9. The model gives a 37% probability of over 2.5 goals and 42% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| GOR Mahia | 1.1 | 0.6 | 7 | 5/15 | 4/15 |
| Nairobi United | 1.3 | 0.9 | 6 | 6/15 | 6/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
GOR Mahia sit 1st in FKF Premier League (69 points from 34 matches) and Nairobi United sit 4th (53 points from 34 matches).
The current season has no played match yet: final standings of the 2025-26 season.
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | GOR Mahia | 34 | 20 | 9 | 5 | 50 | 22 | 69 |
| 4 | Nairobi United | 34 | 14 | 11 | 9 | 44 | 34 | 53 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for GOR Mahia vs Nairobi United?
- The Footlab model makes GOR Mahia the favourite at 48%, against 30% for a draw and 22% for Nairobi United.
- Where and when is GOR Mahia vs Nairobi United played?
- GOR Mahia vs Nairobi United is played on October 9, 2026 at 12:00 PM (UTC) at Nyayo National Stadium, in the FKF Premier League.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 37% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.