Gravina vs Nocerina: prediction and stats
Serie D - Girone HGroup H - 10Kick-off on November 1, 2026 at 01:30 PM (UTC)Stadio Comunale Stefano Vicino, Gravina in Puglia
The Footlab model makes Gravina the favourite at 45%, against 29% for a draw and 26% for Nocerina. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 24, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Gravina vs Nocerina?
A very open match: only 1 Elo points separate Gravina (1,762) and Nocerina (1,760).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Gravina have 10 wins, 3 draws and 2 defeats; Nocerina have 3, 8 and 4.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| May 3, 2026 | Real Normanna(home) | 3-2 | Serie D - Girone H |
| Apr 26, 2026 | Afragolese(away) | 6-0 | Serie D - Girone H |
| Apr 19, 2026 | Paganese(home) | 1-0 | Serie D - Girone H |
| Apr 12, 2026 | Ferrandina(away) | 5-0 | Serie D - Girone H |
| Apr 2, 2026 | Martina Franca(home) | 0-0 | Serie D - Girone H |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| May 3, 2026 | Ischia(home) | 0-1 | Serie D - Girone G |
| Apr 26, 2026 | Monastir(away) | 0-1 | Serie D - Girone G |
| Apr 19, 2026 | Flaminia(home) | 1-1 | Serie D - Girone G |
| Apr 12, 2026 | Atletico Lodigiani(away) | 0-0 | Serie D - Girone G |
| Apr 2, 2026 | Latte Dolce(home) | 0-0 | Serie D - Girone G |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 0 Gravina win(s), 2 draw(s), 4 Nocerina win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Feb 16, 2025 | Gravina 1-1 Nocerina | Serie D - Girone H |
| Oct 20, 2024 | Nocerina 2-1 Gravina | Serie D - Girone H |
| Jan 8, 2023 | Nocerina 2-1 Gravina | Serie D - Girone H |
| Sep 4, 2022 | Gravina 1-1 Nocerina | Serie D - Girone H |
| Feb 16, 2022 | Gravina 0-2 Nocerina | Serie D - Girone H |
| Oct 10, 2021 | Nocerina 2-1 Gravina | Serie D - Girone H |
How many goals should we expect?
Gravina score 1.9 and concede 0.8 goals per match over their last 15; Nocerina score 0.6 and concede 0.7. The model gives a 43% probability of over 2.5 goals and 48% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gravina | 1.9 | 0.8 | 8 | 5/15 | 7/15 |
| Nocerina | 0.6 | 0.7 | 7 | 5/15 | 2/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
The current season has no played match yet: final standings of the 2025-26 season.
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | Gravina | 34 | 16 | 7 | 11 | 50 | 40 | 55 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Gravina vs Nocerina?
- The Footlab model makes Gravina the favourite at 45%, against 29% for a draw and 26% for Nocerina.
- Where and when is Gravina vs Nocerina played?
- Gravina vs Nocerina is played on November 1, 2026 at 01:30 PM (UTC) at Stadio Comunale Stefano Vicino, in the Serie D - Girone H.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 43% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.