Gravina vs Nocerina: prediction and stats
Serie D - Girone HGroup H - 10Kick-off on November 1, 2026 at 01:30 PM (UTC)Stadio Comunale Stefano Vicino, Gravina in Puglia
The Footlab AI model makes Gravina the favourite at 46%, against 29% for a draw and 25% for Nocerina. The most likely score is 1-1. If Gravina wins, the most likely score is 1-0.
Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome in 54.5% of the 2,619 matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Oct 18, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Gravina vs Nocerina?
A very open match: only 12 Elo points separate Gravina (1,763) and Nocerina (1,751).
Computed by the Footlab AI model from our own data only, with no AI analysis.
Probable lineup for Gravina vs Nocerina
Computed by Footlab AI from our own data only: recent lineups, squads and known absences. It does not take the press or last-minute absences into account.
Gravina
Not enough data to predict the Gravina lineup.
Nocerina
Not enough data to predict the Nocerina lineup.
Computed on October 18, 2026 at 09:42 AM (UTC).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Gravina have 8 wins, 4 draws and 3 defeats; Nocerina have 4, 7 and 4.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 11, 2026 | Nardò(away) | 1-1 | Serie D - Girone H |
| Oct 7, 2026 | Virtus Francavilla(away) | 0-3 | Coppa Italia Serie D |
| Oct 4, 2026 | Virtus Francavilla(home) | 4-2 | Serie D - Girone H |
| Sep 27, 2026 | Real Normanna(away) | 0-1 | Serie D - Girone H |
| Sep 20, 2026 | Real Forio 2014(home) | 2-2 | Serie D - Girone H |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 11, 2026 | Brindisi(home) | 0-1 | Serie D - Girone H |
| Oct 7, 2026 | Turris(home) | 1-1 | Coppa Italia Serie D |
| Oct 4, 2026 | Melfi(away) | 1-0 | Serie D - Girone H |
| Sep 27, 2026 | USD Palmese(home) | 3-0 | Serie D - Girone H |
| Sep 20, 2026 | Bisceglie(away) | 1-3 | Serie D - Girone H |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 0 Gravina wins, 2 draws, 4 Nocerina wins.
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Feb 16, 2025 | Gravina 1-1 Nocerina | Serie D - Girone H |
| Oct 20, 2024 | Nocerina 2-1 Gravina | Serie D - Girone H |
| Jan 8, 2023 | Nocerina 2-1 Gravina | Serie D - Girone H |
| Sep 4, 2022 | Gravina 1-1 Nocerina | Serie D - Girone H |
| Feb 16, 2022 | Gravina 0-2 Nocerina | Serie D - Girone H |
| Oct 10, 2021 | Nocerina 2-1 Gravina | Serie D - Girone H |
How many goals should we expect?
Gravina score 2.0 and concede 1.1 goals per match over their last 15; Nocerina score 1.0 and concede 0.9. The model gives a 43% probability of over 2.5 goals and 48% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gravina | 2.0 | 1.1 | 5 | 7/15 | 9/15 |
| Nocerina | 1.0 | 0.9 | 5 | 7/15 | 5/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Gravina sit 6th in Serie D - Girone H (12 points from 7 matches) and Nocerina sit 5th (13 points from 7 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | Nocerina | 7 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 12 | 9 | 13 |
| 6 | Gravina | 7 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 13 | 8 | 12 |
A question about Gravina vs Nocerina?
Ask Footlab AI: lineups, absences, player form, stats, how the match could unfold.
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How does Footlab AI compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. When bookmakers publish odds for the match, their consensus is built into the calculation: that is what proved most accurate on past matches. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Gravina vs Nocerina?
- The Footlab AI model makes Gravina the favourite at 46%, against 29% for a draw and 25% for Nocerina.
- Where and when is Gravina vs Nocerina played?
- Gravina vs Nocerina is played on November 1, 2026 at 01:30 PM (UTC) at Stadio Comunale Stefano Vicino, in the Serie D - Girone H.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab AI model gives a 43% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome (home win, draw or away win) in 54.5% of the matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing, a level comparable with the bookmakers' favourite. The comparison with bookmakers and the breakdown by competition and Elo gap are published on the accuracy page.