Guadalajara Chivas vs Club Tijuana: prediction and stats
Liga MXApertura - 5Kick-off on August 22, 2026 at 11:07 PM (UTC)Estadio AKRON, Zapopan
The Footlab model makes Guadalajara Chivas the favourite at 66%, against 22% for a draw and 12% for Club Tijuana. The most likely score is 2-0.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 22, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Guadalajara Chivas vs Club Tijuana?
A very open match: only 73 Elo points separate Guadalajara Chivas (1,982) and Club Tijuana (1,909).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Guadalajara Chivas have 5 wins, 5 draws and 5 defeats; Club Tijuana have 7, 3 and 5.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 17, 2026 | Santos Laguna(away) | 1-0 | Liga MX |
| Aug 13, 2026 | Seattle Sounders(away) | 2-1 | Leagues Cup |
| Aug 9, 2026 | FC Dallas(home) | 0-1 | Leagues Cup |
| Aug 6, 2026 | Los Angeles FC(away) | 1-1 | Leagues Cup |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Puebla(away) | 1-1 | Liga MX |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 17, 2026 | Cruz Azul(home) | 2-1 | Liga MX |
| Aug 14, 2026 | Portland Timbers(away) | 1-3 | Leagues Cup |
| Aug 10, 2026 | San Diego(away) | 0-1 | Leagues Cup |
| Aug 7, 2026 | Austin(away) | 0-2 | Leagues Cup |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Atletico San Luis(away) | 0-0 | Liga MX |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 2 Guadalajara Chivas win(s), 3 draw(s), 1 Club Tijuana win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Apr 26, 2026 | Guadalajara Chivas 0-0 Club Tijuana | Liga MX |
| Aug 23, 2025 | Club Tijuana 3-3 Guadalajara Chivas | Liga MX |
| Feb 10, 2025 | Guadalajara Chivas 2-1 Club Tijuana | Liga MX |
| Jul 13, 2024 | Club Tijuana 4-2 Guadalajara Chivas | Liga MX |
| Jan 27, 2024 | Club Tijuana 1-1 Guadalajara Chivas | Liga MX |
| Aug 23, 2023 | Guadalajara Chivas 1-0 Club Tijuana | Liga MX |
Last archived meeting: Guadalajara Chivas vs Club Tijuana on Apr 26, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Guadalajara Chivas score 1.2 and concede 1.1 goals per match over their last 15; Club Tijuana score 1.2 and concede 1.1. The model gives a 49% probability of over 2.5 goals and 44% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Guadalajara Chivas | 1.2 | 1.1 | 6 | 7/15 | 6/15 |
| Club Tijuana | 1.2 | 1.1 | 5 | 7/15 | 8/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Guadalajara Chivas sit 12th in Liga MX (4 points from 3 matches) and Club Tijuana sit 2nd (7 points from 3 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Club Tijuana | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 1 | 7 |
| 2 | Club Tijuana | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 6 | 2 | 10 |
| 10 | Guadalajara Chivas | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 7 |
| 12 | Guadalajara Chivas | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Guadalajara Chivas vs Club Tijuana?
- The Footlab model makes Guadalajara Chivas the favourite at 66%, against 22% for a draw and 12% for Club Tijuana.
- Where and when is Guadalajara Chivas vs Club Tijuana played?
- Guadalajara Chivas vs Club Tijuana is played on August 22, 2026 at 11:07 PM (UTC) at Estadio AKRON, in the Liga MX.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 49% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.