Cruz Azul vs Atlas: prediction and stats
Liga MXApertura - 5Kick-off on August 23, 2026 at 03:00 AM (UTC)Estadio Banorte, Mexico City
The Footlab model makes Cruz Azul the favourite at 67%, against 21% for a draw and 12% for Atlas. The most likely score is 2-0.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 21, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Cruz Azul vs Atlas?
Cruz Azul starts as the favourite with a 220-point Elo edge (2,064 vs 1,844).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Cruz Azul have 10 wins, 2 draws and 3 defeats; Atlas have 6, 3 and 6.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 17, 2026 | Club Tijuana(away) | 1-2 | Liga MX |
| Aug 14, 2026 | Chicago Fire(home) | 1-2 | Leagues Cup |
| Aug 9, 2026 | New York City FC(home) | 2-1 | Leagues Cup |
| Aug 7, 2026 | Philadelphia Union(home) | 1-0 | Leagues Cup |
| Aug 2, 2026 | Atlante FC(home) | 2-3 | Liga MX |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 16, 2026 | Tigres UANL(home) | 2-1 | Liga MX |
| Aug 12, 2026 | FC Cincinnati(away) | 2-1 | Leagues Cup |
| Aug 7, 2026 | Charlotte(away) | 0-2 | Leagues Cup |
| Aug 4, 2026 | Columbus Crew(away) | 1-3 | Leagues Cup |
| Aug 2, 2026 | Monterrey(home) | 0-2 | Liga MX |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 3 Cruz Azul win(s), 3 draw(s), 0 Atlas win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| May 10, 2026 | Cruz Azul 1-0 Atlas | Liga MX |
| May 3, 2026 | Atlas 2-3 Cruz Azul | Liga MX |
| Jan 14, 2026 | Cruz Azul 2-0 Atlas | Liga MX |
| Jul 20, 2025 | Atlas 3-3 Cruz Azul | Liga MX |
| Jan 12, 2025 | Cruz Azul 1-1 Atlas | Liga MX |
| Nov 7, 2024 | Atlas 2-2 Cruz Azul | Liga MX |
How many goals should we expect?
Cruz Azul score 1.9 and concede 1.3 goals per match over their last 15; Atlas score 0.9 and concede 1.1. The model gives a 53% probability of over 2.5 goals and 46% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cruz Azul | 1.9 | 1.3 | 3 | 12/15 | 12/15 |
| Atlas | 0.9 | 1.1 | 6 | 5/15 | 5/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Cruz Azul sit 6th in Liga MX (6 points from 3 matches) and Atlas sit 9th (6 points from 3 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | Atlas | 4 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 6 | 5 | 9 |
| 6 | Cruz Azul | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 7 | 6 | 6 |
| 9 | Atlas | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 4 | 6 |
| 10 | Cruz Azul | 4 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 8 | 8 | 6 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Cruz Azul vs Atlas?
- The Footlab model makes Cruz Azul the favourite at 67%, against 21% for a draw and 12% for Atlas.
- Where and when is Cruz Azul vs Atlas played?
- Cruz Azul vs Atlas is played on August 23, 2026 at 03:00 AM (UTC) at Estadio Banorte, in the Liga MX.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 53% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.