Guadalajara II vs Tarancón: prediction and stats
Tercera División RFEF - Group 18Group 18 - 4Kick-off on September 27, 2026 at 04:00 PM (UTC)
The Footlab model makes Tarancón the favourite at 45%, against 32% for a draw and 23% for Guadalajara II. The most likely score is 0-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 25, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Guadalajara II vs Tarancón?
Tarancón starts as the favourite with a 175-point Elo edge (1,906 vs 1,731).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Guadalajara II have 5 wins, 4 draws and 6 defeats; Tarancón have 9, 3 and 3.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| May 10, 2026 | Azuqueca(away) | 0-2 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 18 |
| May 3, 2026 | Villarrubia(home) | 2-0 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 18 |
| Apr 25, 2026 | Tarancón(away) | 0-3 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 18 |
| Apr 18, 2026 | Pedroñeras(home) | 1-1 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 18 |
| Apr 12, 2026 | Calvo Sotelo(away) | 0-4 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 18 |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| May 23, 2026 | Manchego(home) | 0-1 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 18 |
| May 17, 2026 | Manchego(away) | 0-0 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 18 |
| May 10, 2026 | Cazalegas(home) | 3-0 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 18 |
| May 3, 2026 | Huracán Balazote(away) | 3-0 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 18 |
| Apr 25, 2026 | Guadalajara II(home) | 3-0 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 18 |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 2 meetings: 0 Guadalajara II win(s), 0 draw(s), 2 Tarancón win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Apr 25, 2026 | Tarancón 3-0 Guadalajara II | Tercera División RFEF - Group 18 |
| Dec 14, 2025 | Guadalajara II 0-1 Tarancón | Tercera División RFEF - Group 18 |
Last archived meeting: Tarancón vs Guadalajara II on Apr 25, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Guadalajara II score 0.9 and concede 1.1 goals per match over their last 15; Tarancón score 1.5 and concede 0.7. The model gives a 32% probability of over 2.5 goals and 39% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Guadalajara II | 0.9 | 1.1 | 4 | 5/15 | 6/15 |
| Tarancón | 1.5 | 0.7 | 7 | 6/15 | 7/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Guadalajara II sit 9th in Tercera División RFEF - Group 18 (44 points from 34 matches) and Tarancón sit 2nd (73 points from 34 matches).
The current season has no played match yet: final standings of the 2025-26 season.
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Tarancón | 34 | 22 | 7 | 5 | 62 | 25 | 73 |
| 9 | Guadalajara II | 34 | 11 | 11 | 13 | 30 | 37 | 44 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Guadalajara II vs Tarancón?
- The Footlab model makes Tarancón the favourite at 45%, against 32% for a draw and 23% for Guadalajara II.
- Where and when is Guadalajara II vs Tarancón played?
- Guadalajara II vs Tarancón is played on September 27, 2026 at 04:00 PM (UTC), in the Tercera División RFEF - Group 18.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 32% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.