Manchego vs Marchamalo: prediction and stats
Tercera División RFEF - Group 18Group 18 - 4Kick-off on September 27, 2026 at 04:00 PM (UTC)Polideportivo Juan Carlos I, Ciudad Real
The Footlab model makes Manchego the favourite at 62%, against 25% for a draw and 14% for Marchamalo. The most likely score is 1-0.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 24, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Manchego vs Marchamalo?
Manchego starts as the favourite with a 146-point Elo edge (1,851 vs 1,705).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Manchego have 7 wins, 5 draws and 3 defeats; Marchamalo have 6, 2 and 7.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jun 6, 2026 | Albacete II(away) | 0-3 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 18 |
| May 30, 2026 | Albacete II(home) | 2-0 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 18 |
| May 23, 2026 | Tarancón(away) | 1-0 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 18 |
| May 17, 2026 | Tarancón(home) | 0-0 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 18 |
| May 10, 2026 | Illescas(away) | 0-0 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 18 |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 18, 2026 | Guadalajara(home) | 1-0 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Pozuelo Alarcón(away) | 1-0 | Friendlies Clubs |
| May 10, 2026 | Sonseca(away) | 0-1 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 18 |
| May 3, 2026 | Azuqueca(home) | 0-4 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 18 |
| Apr 25, 2026 | Villarrubia(away) | 2-2 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 18 |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 3 Manchego win(s), 1 draw(s), 2 Marchamalo win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Mar 7, 2026 | Marchamalo 2-2 Manchego | Tercera División RFEF - Group 18 |
| Oct 25, 2025 | Manchego 2-1 Marchamalo | Tercera División RFEF - Group 18 |
| Mar 1, 2025 | Marchamalo 1-0 Manchego | Tercera División RFEF - Group 18 |
| Oct 19, 2024 | Manchego 2-0 Marchamalo | Tercera División RFEF - Group 18 |
| Apr 22, 2023 | Manchego 3-1 Marchamalo | Tercera División RFEF - Group 18 |
| Jan 8, 2023 | Marchamalo 3-1 Manchego | Tercera División RFEF - Group 18 |
Last archived meeting: Marchamalo vs Manchego on Mar 7, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Manchego score 1.1 and concede 0.7 goals per match over their last 15; Marchamalo score 1.2 and concede 1.4. The model gives a 43% probability of over 2.5 goals and 41% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Manchego | 1.1 | 0.7 | 9 | 3/15 | 3/15 |
| Marchamalo | 1.2 | 1.4 | 4 | 7/15 | 8/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Manchego sit 5th in Tercera División RFEF - Group 18 (61 points from 34 matches) and Marchamalo sit 13th (37 points from 34 matches).
The current season has no played match yet: final standings of the 2025-26 season.
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | Manchego | 34 | 18 | 7 | 9 | 52 | 29 | 61 |
| 13 | Marchamalo | 34 | 10 | 7 | 17 | 37 | 45 | 37 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Manchego vs Marchamalo?
- The Footlab model makes Manchego the favourite at 62%, against 25% for a draw and 14% for Marchamalo.
- Where and when is Manchego vs Marchamalo played?
- Manchego vs Marchamalo is played on September 27, 2026 at 04:00 PM (UTC) at Polideportivo Juan Carlos I, in the Tercera División RFEF - Group 18.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 43% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.