Guarda vs Castro Daire: prediction and stats
Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group BGroup B - 8Kick-off on November 8, 2026 at 03:00 PM (UTC)Estádio Municipal da Guarda, Guarda
The Footlab AI model makes Castro Daire the favourite at 35%, against 32% for a draw and 33% for Guarda. The most likely score is 1-1. If Castro Daire wins, the most likely score is 0-1.
Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome in 54.8% of the 1,754 matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Oct 9, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Guarda vs Castro Daire?
A very open match: only 23 Elo points separate Guarda (1,865) and Castro Daire (1,842).
Computed by the Footlab AI model from our own data only, with no AI analysis.
Probable lineup for Guarda vs Castro Daire
Computed by Footlab AI from our own data only: recent lineups, squads and known absences. It does not take the press or last-minute absences into account.
Guarda
4-3-3- DDeivison
- SSérgio Assis Capitango Fernando Santos
- 22Daniel Semedo
- 83Tiago Luís
- TT. Nang
- IIsnaba Ioncana
- HHugo Alexandre Bulak Gavino
- 21Rogério Fernandes
- GG. Benjumea
- RRafael Tavares
- 99Ricardo Jorge Oliveira Morais
Castro Daire
4-3-3- MMarcel
- JJoão Rianço
- PPaulo Rodrigues
- TTiago Almeida
- FFred Lopes
- DDiogo
- FFilipe Soares
- PPica
- TTomás César
- RRui Pinto
- TTomás Correia
Computed on October 9, 2026 at 01:42 AM (UTC).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Guarda have 3 wins, 3 draws and 9 defeats; Castro Daire have 4, 3 and 8.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 20, 2026 | Chaves(home) | 2-3 | Taça de Portugal |
| Sep 13, 2026 | Camacha(home) | 2-2 | Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group B |
| Sep 6, 2026 | União Lamas(away) | 0-1 | Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group B |
| Aug 30, 2026 | Académico do Fundão(away) | 6-0 | Taça de Portugal |
| Aug 23, 2026 | Florgrade(away) | 0-1 | Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group B |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 19, 2026 | Portimonense(home) | 0-1 | Taça de Portugal |
| Sep 13, 2026 | Beira-Mar(away) | 1-1 | Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group B |
| Aug 22, 2026 | Sousense(away) | 1-0 | Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group B |
| Aug 16, 2026 | Ovarense(home) | 0-2 | Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group B |
| Aug 31, 2025 | Anadia(home) | 1-2 | Taça de Portugal |
How many goals should we expect?
Guarda score 1.3 and concede 1.5 goals per match over their last 15; Castro Daire score 1.1 and concede 1.3. The model gives a 35% probability of over 2.5 goals and 43% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Guarda | 1.3 | 1.5 | 2 | 7/15 | 6/15 |
| Castro Daire | 1.1 | 1.3 | 4 | 7/15 | 6/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Guarda sit 13th in Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group B (1 point from 4 matches) and Castro Daire sit 4th (7 points from 4 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | Castro Daire | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 3 | 7 |
| 13 | Guarda | 4 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 5 | 1 |
A question about Guarda vs Castro Daire?
Ask Footlab AI: lineups, absences, player form, stats, how the match could unfold.
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How does Footlab AI compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. When bookmakers publish odds for the match, their consensus is built into the calculation: that is what proved most accurate on past matches. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Guarda vs Castro Daire?
- The Footlab AI model makes Castro Daire the favourite at 35%, against 32% for a draw and 33% for Guarda.
- Where and when is Guarda vs Castro Daire played?
- Guarda vs Castro Daire is played on November 8, 2026 at 03:00 PM (UTC) at Estádio Municipal da Guarda, in the Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group B.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab AI model gives a 35% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome (home win, draw or away win) in 54.8% of the matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing, a level comparable with the bookmakers' favourite. The comparison with bookmakers and the breakdown by competition and Elo gap are published on the accuracy page.