Guarda vs Florgrade: prediction and stats
Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group BGroup B - 15Kick-off on January 24, 2027 at 03:00 PM (UTC)Estádio Municipal da Guarda, Guarda
The Footlab AI model makes Guarda the favourite at 39%, against 31% for a draw and 30% for Florgrade. The most likely score is 1-1. If Guarda wins, the most likely score is 1-0.
Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome in 54.6% of the 2,366 matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Oct 14, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Guarda vs Florgrade?
A very open match: only 68 Elo points separate Guarda (1,849) and Florgrade (1,917).
Computed by the Footlab AI model from our own data only, with no AI analysis.
Probable lineup for Guarda vs Florgrade
Computed by Footlab AI from our own data only: recent lineups, squads and known absences. It does not take the press or last-minute absences into account.
Guarda
4-3-3- DDeivison
- SSérgio Assis Capitango Fernando Santos
- 22Daniel Semedo
- 83Tiago Luís
- TT. Nang
- IIsnaba Ioncana
- HHugo Alexandre Bulak Gavino
- 21Rogério Fernandes
- GG. Benjumea
- RRafael Tavares
- 99Ricardo Jorge Oliveira Morais
Florgrade
Not enough data to predict the Florgrade lineup.
Computed on October 14, 2026 at 06:25 AM (UTC).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Guarda have 2 wins, 3 draws and 10 defeats; Florgrade have 7, 4 and 4.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 10, 2026 | Sanjoanense(away) | 0-1 | Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group B |
| Sep 20, 2026 | Chaves(home) | 2-3 | Taça de Portugal |
| Sep 13, 2026 | Camacha(home) | 2-2 | Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group B |
| Sep 6, 2026 | União Lamas(away) | 0-1 | Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group B |
| Aug 30, 2026 | Académico do Fundão(away) | 6-0 | Taça de Portugal |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 10, 2026 | Machico(away) | 0-4 | Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group B |
| Sep 27, 2026 | Camacha(away) | 1-0 | Taça de Portugal |
| Sep 13, 2026 | Sanjoanense(home) | 2-0 | Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group B |
| Sep 6, 2026 | Camacha(away) | 0-1 | Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group B |
| Aug 30, 2026 | São João Ver(home) | 0-0 | Taça de Portugal |
What does the head-to-head say?
In the last meeting: 0 Guarda wins, 0 draws, 1 Florgrade win.
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Aug 23, 2026 | Florgrade 1-0 Guarda | Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group B |
How many goals should we expect?
Guarda score 1.1 and concede 1.5 goals per match over their last 15; Florgrade score 1.0 and concede 1.1. The model gives a 35% probability of over 2.5 goals and 43% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Guarda | 1.1 | 1.5 | 2 | 6/15 | 5/15 |
| Florgrade | 1.0 | 1.1 | 7 | 5/15 | 4/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Guarda sit 13th in Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group B (1 point from 5 matches) and Florgrade sit 6th (7 points from 5 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | Florgrade | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 6 | 7 |
| 13 | Guarda | 5 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 2 | 6 | 1 |
A question about Guarda vs Florgrade?
Ask Footlab AI: lineups, absences, player form, stats, how the match could unfold.
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How does Footlab AI compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. When bookmakers publish odds for the match, their consensus is built into the calculation: that is what proved most accurate on past matches. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Guarda vs Florgrade?
- The Footlab AI model makes Guarda the favourite at 39%, against 31% for a draw and 30% for Florgrade.
- Where and when is Guarda vs Florgrade played?
- Guarda vs Florgrade is played on January 24, 2027 at 03:00 PM (UTC) at Estádio Municipal da Guarda, in the Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group B.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab AI model gives a 35% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome (home win, draw or away win) in 54.6% of the matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing, a level comparable with the bookmakers' favourite. The comparison with bookmakers and the breakdown by competition and Elo gap are published on the accuracy page.