Castro Daire vs Sousense: prediction and stats
Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group BGroup B - 15Kick-off on January 24, 2027 at 03:00 PM (UTC)Complexo Desportivo Castro Daire, Castro Daire
The Footlab model makes Castro Daire the favourite at 41%, against 30% for a draw and 29% for Sousense. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 24, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Castro Daire vs Sousense?
A very open match: only 3 Elo points separate Castro Daire (1,752) and Sousense (1,749).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Castro Daire have 3 wins, 3 draws and 9 defeats; Sousense have 2, 0 and 5.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Sousense(away) | 1-0 | Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group B |
| Aug 16, 2026 | Ovarense(home) | 0-2 | Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group B |
| Aug 31, 2025 | Anadia(home) | 1-2 | Taça de Portugal |
| Apr 16, 2023 | Leça(away) | 0-1 | Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group B |
| Apr 8, 2023 | Resende(home) | 3-1 | Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group B |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Castro Daire(home) | 0-1 | Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group B |
| Aug 16, 2026 | Cinfães(away) | 0-2 | Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group B |
| Jul 25, 2026 | União Lamas(home) | 2-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Sep 24, 2017 | Oleiros(away) | 0-3 | Taça de Portugal |
| Sep 3, 2017 | Paredes(home) | 2-0 | Taça de Portugal |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 1 meetings: 1 Castro Daire win(s), 0 draw(s), 0 Sousense win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Sousense 0-1 Castro Daire | Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group B |
Last archived meeting: Sousense vs Castro Daire on Aug 22, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Castro Daire score 0.9 and concede 1.4 goals per match over their last 15; Sousense score 0.7 and concede 1.6. The model gives a 38% probability of over 2.5 goals and 45% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Castro Daire | 0.9 | 1.4 | 3 | 6/15 | 6/15 |
| Sousense | 0.7 | 1.6 | 1 | 2/7 | 3/7 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Castro Daire sit 7th in Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group B (3 points from 2 matches) and Sousense sit 14th (0 points from 2 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | Castro Daire | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 3 |
| 14 | Sousense | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 0 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Castro Daire vs Sousense?
- The Footlab model makes Castro Daire the favourite at 41%, against 30% for a draw and 29% for Sousense.
- Where and when is Castro Daire vs Sousense played?
- Castro Daire vs Sousense is played on January 24, 2027 at 03:00 PM (UTC) at Complexo Desportivo Castro Daire, in the Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group B.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 38% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.