Guarda vs Sanjoanense: prediction and stats
Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group BGroup B - 18Kick-off on February 14, 2027 at 03:00 PM (UTC)Estádio Municipal da Guarda, Guarda
The Footlab AI model makes Guarda the favourite at 48%, against 29% for a draw and 23% for Sanjoanense. The most likely score is 1-1. If Guarda wins, the most likely score is 1-0.
Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome in 54.6% of the 2,366 matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Oct 14, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Guarda vs Sanjoanense?
A very open match: only 78 Elo points separate Guarda (1,849) and Sanjoanense (1,927).
Computed by the Footlab AI model from our own data only, with no AI analysis.
Probable lineup for Guarda vs Sanjoanense
Computed by Footlab AI from our own data only: recent lineups, squads and known absences. It does not take the press or last-minute absences into account.
Guarda
4-3-3- DDeivison
- SSérgio Assis Capitango Fernando Santos
- 22Daniel Semedo
- 83Tiago Luís
- TT. Nang
- IIsnaba Ioncana
- HHugo Alexandre Bulak Gavino
- 21Rogério Fernandes
- GG. Benjumea
- RRafael Tavares
- 99Ricardo Jorge Oliveira Morais
Sanjoanense
Not enough data to predict the Sanjoanense lineup.
Computed on October 14, 2026 at 06:39 AM (UTC).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Guarda have 2 wins, 3 draws and 10 defeats; Sanjoanense have 6, 5 and 4.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 10, 2026 | Sanjoanense(away) | 0-1 | Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group B |
| Sep 20, 2026 | Chaves(home) | 2-3 | Taça de Portugal |
| Sep 13, 2026 | Camacha(home) | 2-2 | Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group B |
| Sep 6, 2026 | União Lamas(away) | 0-1 | Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group B |
| Aug 30, 2026 | Académico do Fundão(away) | 6-0 | Taça de Portugal |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 10, 2026 | Guarda(home) | 1-0 | Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group B |
| Sep 20, 2026 | Ançã(away) | 4-1 | Taça de Portugal |
| Sep 13, 2026 | Florgrade(away) | 0-2 | Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group B |
| Sep 6, 2026 | Alpendorada(home) | 3-1 | Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group B |
| Aug 30, 2026 | Pacos de Brandao(home) | 3-0 | Taça de Portugal |
What does the head-to-head say?
In the last meeting: 0 Guarda wins, 0 draws, 1 Sanjoanense win.
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Oct 10, 2026 | Sanjoanense 1-0 Guarda | Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group B |
Last archived meeting: Sanjoanense vs Guarda on Oct 10, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Guarda score 1.1 and concede 1.5 goals per match over their last 15; Sanjoanense score 1.5 and concede 1.2. The model gives a 41% probability of over 2.5 goals and 46% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Guarda | 1.1 | 1.5 | 2 | 6/15 | 5/15 |
| Sanjoanense | 1.5 | 1.2 | 4 | 9/15 | 8/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Guarda sit 13th in Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group B (1 point from 5 matches) and Sanjoanense sit 4th (8 points from 5 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | Sanjoanense | 5 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 6 | 5 | 8 |
| 13 | Guarda | 5 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 2 | 6 | 1 |
A question about Guarda vs Sanjoanense?
Ask Footlab AI: lineups, absences, player form, stats, how the match could unfold.
Sign-in required. No odds displayed, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab AI compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. When bookmakers publish odds for the match, their consensus is built into the calculation: that is what proved most accurate on past matches. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Guarda vs Sanjoanense?
- The Footlab AI model makes Guarda the favourite at 48%, against 29% for a draw and 23% for Sanjoanense.
- Where and when is Guarda vs Sanjoanense played?
- Guarda vs Sanjoanense is played on February 14, 2027 at 03:00 PM (UTC) at Estádio Municipal da Guarda, in the Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group B.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab AI model gives a 41% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome (home win, draw or away win) in 54.6% of the matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing, a level comparable with the bookmakers' favourite. The comparison with bookmakers and the breakdown by competition and Elo gap are published on the accuracy page.