Guarnizo vs Tropezón: prediction and stats
Tercera División RFEF - Group 3Group 3 - 12Kick-off on November 22, 2026 at 05:00 PM (UTC)Estadio El Pilar, Guarnizo
The Footlab model makes Guarnizo the favourite at 36%, against 32% for a draw and 32% for Tropezón. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 24, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Guarnizo vs Tropezón?
A very open match: only 54 Elo points separate Guarnizo (1,846) and Tropezón (1,899).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Guarnizo have 8 wins, 5 draws and 2 defeats; Tropezón have 9, 3 and 3.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| May 24, 2026 | Tropezón(away) | 0-3 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 3 |
| May 17, 2026 | Tropezón(home) | 0-0 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 3 |
| May 9, 2026 | Bezana(away) | 1-1 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 3 |
| May 3, 2026 | Torina(home) | 2-2 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 3 |
| Apr 26, 2026 | Barquereño(away) | 1-0 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 3 |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jun 20, 2026 | Arnedo(away) | 0-1 | Tercera División RFEF - Promotion - Play-offs |
| Jun 13, 2026 | Arnedo(home) | 1-0 | Tercera División RFEF - Promotion - Play-offs |
| Jun 6, 2026 | Laredo(away) | 1-0 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 3 |
| May 31, 2026 | Laredo(home) | 0-0 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 3 |
| May 24, 2026 | Guarnizo(home) | 3-0 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 3 |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 2 Guarnizo win(s), 2 draw(s), 2 Tropezón win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| May 24, 2026 | Tropezón 3-0 Guarnizo | Tercera División RFEF - Group 3 |
| May 17, 2026 | Guarnizo 0-0 Tropezón | Tercera División RFEF - Group 3 |
| Mar 7, 2026 | Guarnizo 1-0 Tropezón | Tercera División RFEF - Group 3 |
| Oct 25, 2025 | Tropezón 0-3 Guarnizo | Tercera División RFEF - Group 3 |
| Apr 27, 2025 | Guarnizo 1-1 Tropezón | Tercera División RFEF - Group 3 |
| Dec 15, 2024 | Tropezón 2-0 Guarnizo | Tercera División RFEF - Group 3 |
How many goals should we expect?
Guarnizo score 1.3 and concede 0.6 goals per match over their last 15; Tropezón score 1.2 and concede 0.5. The model gives a 33% probability of over 2.5 goals and 41% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Guarnizo | 1.3 | 0.6 | 9 | 4/15 | 5/15 |
| Tropezón | 1.2 | 0.5 | 9 | 3/15 | 4/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Guarnizo sit 4th in Tercera División RFEF - Group 3 (66 points from 34 matches) and Tropezón sit 3rd (67 points from 34 matches).
The current season has no played match yet: final standings of the 2025-26 season.
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | Tropezón | 34 | 21 | 4 | 9 | 50 | 27 | 67 |
| 4 | Guarnizo | 34 | 19 | 9 | 6 | 47 | 26 | 66 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Guarnizo vs Tropezón?
- The Footlab model makes Guarnizo the favourite at 36%, against 32% for a draw and 32% for Tropezón.
- Where and when is Guarnizo vs Tropezón played?
- Guarnizo vs Tropezón is played on November 22, 2026 at 05:00 PM (UTC) at Estadio El Pilar, in the Tercera División RFEF - Group 3.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 33% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.