Guarnizo vs Tropezón: prediction and stats
Tercera División RFEF - Group 3Group 3 - 12Kick-off on November 22, 2026 at 05:00 PM (UTC)Estadio El Pilar, Guarnizo
The Footlab AI model makes Tropezón the favourite at 45%, against 30% for a draw and 25% for Guarnizo. The most likely score is 0-1.
Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome in 54.6% of the 2,366 matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Oct 14, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Guarnizo vs Tropezón?
Tropezón starts as the favourite with a 131-point Elo edge (1,870 vs 1,738).
Computed by the Footlab AI model from our own data only, with no AI analysis.
Probable lineup for Guarnizo vs Tropezón
Computed by Footlab AI from our own data only: recent lineups, squads and known absences. It does not take the press or last-minute absences into account.
Guarnizo
Not enough data to predict the Guarnizo lineup.
Tropezón
Not enough data to predict the Tropezón lineup.
Computed on October 14, 2026 at 01:22 AM (UTC).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Guarnizo have 6 wins, 5 draws and 4 defeats; Tropezón have 11, 2 and 2.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 10, 2026 | Bezana(home) | 1-1 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 3 |
| Oct 3, 2026 | Torina(away) | 1-1 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 3 |
| Sep 26, 2026 | Velarde(home) | 3-1 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 3 |
| Sep 20, 2026 | Sámano(away) | 1-4 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 3 |
| Sep 12, 2026 | Cayón(home) | 0-1 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 3 |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 10, 2026 | Atlético Mineros(home) | 2-1 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 3 |
| Oct 4, 2026 | Castro(away) | 2-0 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 3 |
| Sep 27, 2026 | Revilla(home) | 2-0 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 3 |
| Sep 19, 2026 | Solares(away) | 2-1 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 3 |
| Sep 12, 2026 | Selaya(home) | 3-0 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 3 |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 2 Guarnizo wins, 2 draws, 2 Tropezón wins.
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| May 24, 2026 | Tropezón 3-0 Guarnizo | Tercera División RFEF - Group 3 |
| May 17, 2026 | Guarnizo 0-0 Tropezón | Tercera División RFEF - Group 3 |
| Mar 7, 2026 | Guarnizo 1-0 Tropezón | Tercera División RFEF - Group 3 |
| Oct 25, 2025 | Tropezón 0-3 Guarnizo | Tercera División RFEF - Group 3 |
| Apr 27, 2025 | Guarnizo 1-1 Tropezón | Tercera División RFEF - Group 3 |
| Dec 15, 2024 | Tropezón 2-0 Guarnizo | Tercera División RFEF - Group 3 |
How many goals should we expect?
Guarnizo score 1.3 and concede 1.1 goals per match over their last 15; Tropezón score 1.5 and concede 0.5. The model gives a 37% probability of over 2.5 goals and 43% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Guarnizo | 1.3 | 1.1 | 5 | 8/15 | 7/15 |
| Tropezón | 1.5 | 0.5 | 9 | 4/15 | 6/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Guarnizo sit 11th in Tercera División RFEF - Group 3 (5 points from 6 matches) and Tropezón sit 1st (18 points from 6 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Tropezón | 6 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 13 | 3 | 18 |
| 11 | Guarnizo | 6 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 7 | 10 | 5 |
A question about Guarnizo vs Tropezón?
Ask Footlab AI: lineups, absences, player form, stats, how the match could unfold.
Sign-in required. No odds displayed, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab AI compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. When bookmakers publish odds for the match, their consensus is built into the calculation: that is what proved most accurate on past matches. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Guarnizo vs Tropezón?
- The Footlab AI model makes Tropezón the favourite at 45%, against 30% for a draw and 25% for Guarnizo.
- Where and when is Guarnizo vs Tropezón played?
- Guarnizo vs Tropezón is played on November 22, 2026 at 05:00 PM (UTC) at Estadio El Pilar, in the Tercera División RFEF - Group 3.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab AI model gives a 37% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome (home win, draw or away win) in 54.6% of the matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing, a level comparable with the bookmakers' favourite. The comparison with bookmakers and the breakdown by competition and Elo gap are published on the accuracy page.