Cayón vs Castro: prediction and stats
Tercera División RFEF - Group 3Group 3 - 12Kick-off on November 22, 2026 at 05:00 PM (UTC)Estadio Fernando Astobiza, Sarón, Santa María de Cayón
The Footlab AI model makes Cayón the favourite at 57%, against 25% for a draw and 18% for Castro. The most likely score is 1-0.
Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome in 54.6% of the 2,366 matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Oct 14, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Cayón vs Castro?
Cayón starts as the favourite with a 141-point Elo edge (1,749 vs 1,608).
Computed by the Footlab AI model from our own data only, with no AI analysis.
Probable lineup for Cayón vs Castro
Computed by Footlab AI from our own data only: recent lineups, squads and known absences. It does not take the press or last-minute absences into account.
Cayón
Not enough data to predict the Cayón lineup.
Castro
Not enough data to predict the Castro lineup.
Computed on October 14, 2026 at 01:10 AM (UTC).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Cayón have 7 wins, 2 draws and 6 defeats; Castro have 2, 4 and 9.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 11, 2026 | Torina(home) | 0-0 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 3 |
| Oct 3, 2026 | Velarde(away) | 1-0 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 3 |
| Sep 27, 2026 | Sámano(home) | 1-1 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 3 |
| Sep 19, 2026 | Atlético Mineros(away) | 2-0 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 3 |
| Sep 12, 2026 | Guarnizo(away) | 1-0 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 3 |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 10, 2026 | Atlético Albericia(away) | 2-4 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 3 |
| Oct 4, 2026 | Tropezón(home) | 0-2 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 3 |
| Sep 27, 2026 | Atlético Mineros(home) | 0-2 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 3 |
| Sep 19, 2026 | Revilla(away) | 2-2 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 3 |
| Sep 13, 2026 | Solares(home) | 2-0 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 3 |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 2 Cayón wins, 3 draws, 1 Castro win.
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Feb 8, 2026 | Castro 2-0 Cayón | Tercera División RFEF - Group 3 |
| Sep 27, 2025 | Cayón 1-1 Castro | Tercera División RFEF - Group 3 |
| Mar 30, 2025 | Castro 0-0 Cayón | Tercera División RFEF - Group 3 |
| Nov 17, 2024 | Cayón 1-0 Castro | Tercera División RFEF - Group 3 |
| Mar 26, 2023 | Cayón 2-0 Castro | Tercera División RFEF - Group 3 |
| Nov 26, 2022 | Castro 2-2 Cayón | Tercera División RFEF - Group 3 |
How many goals should we expect?
Cayón score 1.1 and concede 1.0 goals per match over their last 15; Castro score 1.0 and concede 1.6. The model gives a 46% probability of over 2.5 goals and 46% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cayón | 1.1 | 1.0 | 6 | 5/15 | 4/15 |
| Castro | 1.0 | 1.6 | 3 | 7/15 | 7/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Cayón sit 6th in Tercera División RFEF - Group 3 (11 points from 6 matches) and Castro sit 13th (5 points from 6 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | Cayón | 6 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 5 | 2 | 11 |
| 13 | Castro | 6 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 6 | 10 | 5 |
A question about Cayón vs Castro?
Ask Footlab AI: lineups, absences, player form, stats, how the match could unfold.
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How does Footlab AI compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. When bookmakers publish odds for the match, their consensus is built into the calculation: that is what proved most accurate on past matches. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Cayón vs Castro?
- The Footlab AI model makes Cayón the favourite at 57%, against 25% for a draw and 18% for Castro.
- Where and when is Cayón vs Castro played?
- Cayón vs Castro is played on November 22, 2026 at 05:00 PM (UTC) at Estadio Fernando Astobiza, in the Tercera División RFEF - Group 3.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab AI model gives a 46% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome (home win, draw or away win) in 54.6% of the matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing, a level comparable with the bookmakers' favourite. The comparison with bookmakers and the breakdown by competition and Elo gap are published on the accuracy page.