Gubbio vs Perugia: prediction and stats
Serie C - Girone BGirone B - 8Kick-off on October 4, 2026 at 04:00 PM (UTC)Stadio Pietro Barbetti, Gubbio
The Footlab model makes Gubbio the favourite at 36%, against 32% for a draw and 32% for Perugia. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 24, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Gubbio vs Perugia?
A very open match: only 10 Elo points separate Gubbio (1,781) and Perugia (1,771).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Gubbio have 6 wins, 3 draws and 6 defeats; Perugia have 5, 6 and 4.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Guidonia Montecelio 1937(away) | 0-3 | Serie C - Girone B |
| Aug 14, 2026 | Pineto(away) | 2-1 | Coppa Italia Serie C |
| Jul 29, 2026 | Sporting Trestina(home) | 2-0 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jul 22, 2026 | Fiorentina(away) | 0-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
| May 3, 2026 | Pineto(away) | 1-2 | Serie C - Promotion - Play-offs |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 23, 2026 | Ostia Mare(home) | 1-0 | Serie C - Girone B |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Vis Pesaro(home) | 1-2 | Coppa Italia Serie C |
| Apr 26, 2026 | Forli(away) | 1-1 | Serie C - Girone B |
| Apr 18, 2026 | Campobasso FC(home) | 0-1 | Serie C - Girone B |
| Apr 12, 2026 | Ternana(away) | 2-2 | Serie C - Girone B |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 2 Gubbio win(s), 2 draw(s), 2 Perugia win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Jan 18, 2026 | Perugia 0-1 Gubbio | Serie C - Girone B |
| Sep 6, 2025 | Gubbio 1-1 Perugia | Serie C - Girone B |
| Jan 20, 2025 | Gubbio 1-0 Perugia | Serie C - Girone B |
| Sep 15, 2024 | Perugia 1-1 Gubbio | Serie C - Girone B |
| Mar 17, 2024 | Gubbio 0-1 Perugia | Serie C - Girone B |
| Nov 12, 2023 | Perugia 1-0 Gubbio | Serie C - Girone B |
How many goals should we expect?
Gubbio score 1.0 and concede 1.3 goals per match over their last 15; Perugia score 1.1 and concede 1.1. The model gives a 34% probability of over 2.5 goals and 42% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gubbio | 1.0 | 1.3 | 5 | 6/15 | 7/15 |
| Perugia | 1.1 | 1.1 | 3 | 10/15 | 6/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Gubbio sit 20th in Serie C - Girone B (0 points from 1 matches) and Perugia sit 5th (3 points from 1 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | Perugia | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 3 |
| 20 | Gubbio | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 0 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Gubbio vs Perugia?
- The Footlab model makes Gubbio the favourite at 36%, against 32% for a draw and 32% for Perugia.
- Where and when is Gubbio vs Perugia played?
- Gubbio vs Perugia is played on October 4, 2026 at 04:00 PM (UTC) at Stadio Pietro Barbetti, in the Serie C - Girone B.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 34% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.