HB Koge vs Esbjerg: prediction and stats
1. DivisionRegular Season - 22Kick-off on March 20, 2027 at 01:00 PM (UTC)Capelli Sport Stadion, Køge
The Footlab model makes Esbjerg the favourite at 44%, against 26% for a draw and 30% for HB Koge. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 25, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win HB Koge vs Esbjerg?
Esbjerg starts as the favourite with a 130-point Elo edge (1,833 vs 1,704).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, HB Koge have 4 wins, 3 draws and 8 defeats; Esbjerg have 6, 3 and 6.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 23, 2026 | Kolding IF(home) | 2-2 | 1. Division |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Hvidovre(home) | 0-2 | 1. Division |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Aarhus Fremad(away) | 1-3 | 1. Division |
| Aug 4, 2026 | Brønshøj(away) | 0-1 | DBU Pokalen |
| Jul 31, 2026 | Vejle(home) | 0-2 | 1. Division |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 21, 2026 | Vejle(away) | 2-4 | 1. Division |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Hobro(home) | 1-2 | 1. Division |
| Aug 9, 2026 | Hvidovre(away) | 1-2 | 1. Division |
| Aug 6, 2026 | Bogense(away) | 6-0 | DBU Pokalen |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Hillerød(away) | 3-2 | 1. Division |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 1 HB Koge win(s), 1 draw(s), 4 Esbjerg win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Mar 6, 2026 | HB Koge 0-1 Esbjerg | 1. Division |
| Sep 1, 2025 | Esbjerg 3-2 HB Koge | 1. Division |
| Feb 28, 2025 | HB Koge 0-2 Esbjerg | 1. Division |
| Aug 24, 2024 | Esbjerg 4-1 HB Koge | 1. Division |
| May 7, 2022 | HB Koge 2-1 Esbjerg | 1. Division |
| Apr 23, 2022 | Esbjerg 0-0 HB Koge | 1. Division |
How many goals should we expect?
HB Koge score 1.0 and concede 1.5 goals per match over their last 15; Esbjerg score 1.9 and concede 1.4. The model gives a 56% probability of over 2.5 goals and 59% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| HB Koge | 1.0 | 1.5 | 2 | 6/15 | 7/15 |
| Esbjerg | 1.9 | 1.4 | 3 | 9/15 | 9/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
HB Koge sit 12th in 1. Division (1 points from 5 matches) and Esbjerg sit 9th (4 points from 5 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | Esbjerg | 5 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 8 | 11 | 4 |
| 12 | HB Koge | 5 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 3 | 12 | 1 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for HB Koge vs Esbjerg?
- The Footlab model makes Esbjerg the favourite at 44%, against 26% for a draw and 30% for HB Koge.
- Where and when is HB Koge vs Esbjerg played?
- HB Koge vs Esbjerg is played on March 20, 2027 at 01:00 PM (UTC) at Capelli Sport Stadion, in the 1. Division.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 56% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.