Heimstetten vs Erlbach: prediction and stats
Oberliga - Bayern SüdBayern Süd - 13Kick-off on October 3, 2026 at 12:00 PM (UTC)Sportpark Heimstetten, Kirchheim bei München
The Footlab model makes Heimstetten the favourite at 37%, against 28% for a draw and 36% for Erlbach. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 24, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Heimstetten vs Erlbach?
A very open match: only 53 Elo points separate Heimstetten (1,751) and Erlbach (1,804).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Heimstetten have 6 wins, 4 draws and 5 defeats; Erlbach have 6, 3 and 6.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 21, 2026 | Hankofen-Hailing(home) | 0-4 | Oberliga - Bayern Süd |
| Aug 14, 2026 | Schalding-Heining(home) | 1-0 | Oberliga - Bayern Süd |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Schwabmünchen(away) | 3-1 | Oberliga - Bayern Süd |
| Jul 31, 2026 | TuS Geretsried(home) | 1-1 | Oberliga - Bayern Süd |
| Jul 24, 2026 | Sportfreunde Schwaig(home) | 1-2 | Oberliga - Bayern Süd |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 23, 2026 | Sportfreunde Schwaig(away) | 0-0 | Oberliga - Bayern Süd |
| Aug 18, 2026 | Kirchanschöring(away) | 1-0 | Oberliga - Bayern Süd |
| Aug 14, 2026 | Gundelfingen(home) | 1-1 | Oberliga - Bayern Süd |
| Aug 7, 2026 | 1880 Wasserburg(away) | 2-2 | Oberliga - Bayern Süd |
| Jul 31, 2026 | Deisenhofen(home) | 1-0 | Oberliga - Bayern Süd |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 2 Heimstetten win(s), 2 draw(s), 2 Erlbach win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Apr 18, 2026 | Heimstetten 3-2 Erlbach | Oberliga - Bayern Süd |
| Oct 2, 2025 | Erlbach 0-2 Heimstetten | Oberliga - Bayern Süd |
| Nov 9, 2024 | Erlbach 3-0 Heimstetten | Oberliga - Bayern Süd |
| Jul 30, 2024 | Heimstetten 1-1 Erlbach | Oberliga - Bayern Süd |
| Mar 2, 2024 | Heimstetten 1-2 Erlbach | Oberliga - Bayern Süd |
| Aug 11, 2023 | Erlbach 1-1 Heimstetten | Oberliga - Bayern Süd |
Last archived meeting: Heimstetten vs Erlbach on Apr 18, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Heimstetten score 1.6 and concede 1.5 goals per match over their last 15; Erlbach score 1.1 and concede 1.1. The model gives a 50% probability of over 2.5 goals and 55% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Heimstetten | 1.6 | 1.5 | 5 | 9/15 | 8/15 |
| Erlbach | 1.1 | 1.1 | 7 | 4/15 | 5/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Heimstetten sit 7th in Oberliga - Bayern Süd (51 points from 32 matches) and Erlbach sit 5th (53 points from 32 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | Erlbach | 32 | 16 | 5 | 11 | 42 | 35 | 53 |
| 7 | Heimstetten | 32 | 14 | 9 | 9 | 64 | 46 | 51 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Heimstetten vs Erlbach?
- The Footlab model makes Heimstetten the favourite at 37%, against 28% for a draw and 36% for Erlbach.
- Where and when is Heimstetten vs Erlbach played?
- Heimstetten vs Erlbach is played on October 3, 2026 at 12:00 PM (UTC) at Sportpark Heimstetten, in the Oberliga - Bayern Süd.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 50% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.
Other matches in the same round
- Oct 2, 20261860 München IIvs1860 Rosenheim
- Oct 2, 2026Sportfreunde SchwaigvsKottern
- Oct 3, 2026PipinsriedvsIsmaning
- Oct 3, 2026SchwabmünchenvsGundelfingen
- Oct 3, 2026Schalding-Heiningvs1880 Wasserburg
- Oct 3, 2026PfaffenhofenvsDeisenhofen
- Oct 3, 2026TuS GeretsriedvsKirchanschöring
- Oct 4, 2026Hankofen-HailingvsLandshut