Hibernians vs Marsaxlokk: prediction and stats
Premier LeagueFirst Stage - Top 6 - 13Kick-off on November 22, 2026 at 04:30 PM (UTC)Tony Bezzina Stadium, Paola
The Footlab AI model makes Marsaxlokk the favourite at 47%, against 26% for a draw and 27% for Hibernians. The most likely score is 1-1. If Marsaxlokk wins, the most likely score is 1-2.
Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome in 54.2% of the 6,188 matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Nov 15, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Hibernians vs Marsaxlokk?
A very open match: only 76 Elo points separate Hibernians (1,510) and Marsaxlokk (1,586).
Computed by the Footlab AI model from our own data only, with no AI analysis.
Probable lineup for Hibernians vs Marsaxlokk
Computed by Footlab AI from our own data only: recent lineups, squads and known absences. It does not take the press or last-minute absences into account.
Hibernians
4-3-3- 7J. Mbong
- 9J. Mickels
- 34A. Sobczyk
- 47M. El Fanis
- 4S. Alfred
- 28J. Roe
- 3M. Römling
- 5K. Shaw
- 24L. Lacunza
- 14D. Xuereb
- 45M. Cardinali
Marsaxlokk
4-3-3- 11J. C. Corbalan
- 10Dodo
- 9R. Lindén
- 25J. Minala
- 6N. Muscat
- 8U. Arias
- 27L. Aguirre
- 5E. Pepe
- 4O. El Hasni
- 3Weder
- 22C. Mafoumbi
Computed on November 15, 2026 at 07:32 AM (UTC).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Hibernians have 6 wins, 5 draws and 4 defeats; Marsaxlokk have 6, 3 and 6.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 7, 2026 | Floriana(away) | 2-0 | Premier League |
| Oct 31, 2026 | Balzan FC(away) | 2-1 | Premier League |
| Oct 26, 2026 | Mosta(away) | 2-2 | Premier League |
| Oct 22, 2026 | Gzira United(home) | 2-1 | Premier League |
| Oct 18, 2026 | Birzebbuga(home) | 1-0 | Premier League |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 8, 2026 | Hamrun Spartans(home) | 2-2 | Premier League |
| Nov 2, 2026 | Gzira United(away) | 5-0 | Premier League |
| Oct 24, 2026 | Sliema Wanderers(away) | 1-2 | Premier League |
| Oct 21, 2026 | Birzebbuga(away) | 0-2 | Premier League |
| Oct 16, 2026 | Birkirkara(home) | 2-0 | Premier League |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 0 Hibernians wins, 2 draws, 4 Marsaxlokk wins.
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Aug 21, 2026 | Marsaxlokk 1-0 Hibernians | Premier League |
| Feb 15, 2026 | Marsaxlokk 2-1 Hibernians | Premier League |
| Nov 1, 2025 | Hibernians 2-2 Marsaxlokk | Premier League |
| Jan 26, 2025 | Hibernians 0-1 Marsaxlokk | Premier League |
| Nov 7, 2024 | Marsaxlokk 1-1 Hibernians | Premier League |
| Apr 27, 2024 | Hibernians 0-2 Marsaxlokk | Premier League |
Last archived meeting: Marsaxlokk vs Hibernians on Aug 21, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Hibernians score 1.1 and concede 1.2 goals per match over their last 15; Marsaxlokk score 1.5 and concede 1.4. The model gives a 54% probability of over 2.5 goals and 57% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hibernians | 1.1 | 1.2 | 5 | 6/15 | 6/15 |
| Marsaxlokk | 1.5 | 1.4 | 3 | 8/15 | 8/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Hibernians sit 4th in Premier League (19 points from 12 matches) and Marsaxlokk sit 2nd (21 points from 12 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Marsaxlokk | 12 | 6 | 3 | 3 | 23 | 16 | 21 |
| 4 | Hibernians | 12 | 5 | 4 | 3 | 15 | 15 | 19 |
A question about Hibernians vs Marsaxlokk?
Ask Footlab AI: lineups, absences, player form, stats, how the match could unfold.
Sign-in required. No odds displayed, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab AI compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. When bookmakers publish odds for the match, their consensus is built into the calculation: that is what proved most accurate on past matches. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Hibernians vs Marsaxlokk?
- The Footlab AI model makes Marsaxlokk the favourite at 47%, against 26% for a draw and 27% for Hibernians.
- Where and when is Hibernians vs Marsaxlokk played?
- Hibernians vs Marsaxlokk is played on November 22, 2026 at 04:30 PM (UTC) at Tony Bezzina Stadium, in the Premier League.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab AI model gives a 54% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome (home win, draw or away win) in 54.2% of the matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing, a level comparable with the bookmakers' favourite. The comparison with bookmakers and the breakdown by competition and Elo gap are published on the accuracy page.