HNK Rijeka vs HNK Hajduk Split: prediction and stats
HNLRegular Season - 8Kick-off on September 19, 2026 at 03:00 PM (UTC)Stadion HNK Rijeka, Rijeka
The Footlab model makes HNK Rijeka the favourite at 42%, against 28% for a draw and 29% for HNK Hajduk Split. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 24, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win HNK Rijeka vs HNK Hajduk Split?
A very open match: only 27 Elo points separate HNK Rijeka (1,999) and HNK Hajduk Split (2,027).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, HNK Rijeka have 8 wins, 3 draws and 4 defeats; HNK Hajduk Split have 10, 2 and 3.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 23, 2026 | Istra 1961(home) | 3-2 | HNL |
| Aug 20, 2026 | FC Midtjylland(away) | 0-2 | UEFA Europa Conference League |
| Aug 16, 2026 | NK Varazdin(away) | 0-2 | HNL |
| Aug 13, 2026 | Ilves(away) | 1-1 | UEFA Europa Conference League |
| Aug 6, 2026 | Ilves(home) | 1-0 | UEFA Europa Conference League |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 23, 2026 | NK Osijek(home) | 4-0 | HNL |
| Aug 20, 2026 | Raków Częstochowa(home) | 2-2 | UEFA Europa Conference League |
| Aug 16, 2026 | HNK Gorica(away) | 2-1 | HNL |
| Aug 13, 2026 | FK Zalgiris Vilnius(home) | 4-0 | UEFA Europa Conference League |
| Aug 9, 2026 | Istra 1961(home) | 2-2 | HNL |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 2 HNK Rijeka win(s), 2 draw(s), 2 HNK Hajduk Split win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Apr 26, 2026 | HNK Rijeka 0-0 HNK Hajduk Split | HNL |
| Mar 4, 2026 | HNK Rijeka 3-2 HNK Hajduk Split | Cup |
| Feb 22, 2026 | HNK Hajduk Split 1-0 HNK Rijeka | HNL |
| Nov 22, 2025 | HNK Rijeka 5-0 HNK Hajduk Split | HNL |
| Aug 31, 2025 | HNK Hajduk Split 2-2 HNK Rijeka | HNL |
| May 18, 2025 | HNK Hajduk Split 2-1 HNK Rijeka | HNL |
Last archived meeting: HNK Rijeka vs HNK Hajduk Split on Apr 26, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
HNK Rijeka score 1.1 and concede 0.7 goals per match over their last 15; HNK Hajduk Split score 2.5 and concede 1.1. The model gives a 45% probability of over 2.5 goals and 50% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| HNK Rijeka | 1.1 | 0.7 | 8 | 3/15 | 4/15 |
| HNK Hajduk Split | 2.5 | 1.1 | 7 | 7/15 | 10/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
HNK Rijeka sit 5th in HNL (6 points from 3 matches) and HNK Hajduk Split sit 4th (7 points from 4 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | HNK Hajduk Split | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 9 | 5 | 7 |
| 5 | HNK Rijeka | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 5 | 6 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for HNK Rijeka vs HNK Hajduk Split?
- The Footlab model makes HNK Rijeka the favourite at 42%, against 28% for a draw and 29% for HNK Hajduk Split.
- Where and when is HNK Rijeka vs HNK Hajduk Split played?
- HNK Rijeka vs HNK Hajduk Split is played on September 19, 2026 at 03:00 PM (UTC) at Stadion HNK Rijeka, in the HNL.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 45% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.