Istra 1961 vs HNK Gorica: prediction and stats
HNLRegular Season - 8Kick-off on September 19, 2026 at 03:00 PM (UTC)Stadion Aldo Drosina, Pula
The Footlab model makes Istra 1961 the favourite at 44%, against 28% for a draw and 28% for HNK Gorica. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 26, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Istra 1961 vs HNK Gorica?
A very open match: only 65 Elo points separate Istra 1961 (1,864) and HNK Gorica (1,799).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Istra 1961 have 4 wins, 3 draws and 8 defeats; HNK Gorica have 4, 0 and 11.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 23, 2026 | HNK Rijeka(away) | 2-3 | HNL |
| Aug 15, 2026 | NK Slaven Belupo(home) | 3-0 | HNL |
| Aug 9, 2026 | HNK Hajduk Split(away) | 2-2 | HNL |
| Aug 1, 2026 | NK Lokomotiva Zagreb(home) | 2-3 | HNL |
| Jul 25, 2026 | Lecce(away) | 2-2 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | NK Slaven Belupo(away) | 0-2 | HNL |
| Aug 16, 2026 | HNK Hajduk Split(home) | 1-2 | HNL |
| Aug 8, 2026 | NK Lokomotiva Zagreb(away) | 1-3 | HNL |
| Aug 1, 2026 | NK Osijek(home) | 0-2 | HNL |
| Jul 23, 2026 | Shakhtar Donetsk(home) | 0-2 | Friendlies Clubs |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 1 Istra 1961 win(s), 1 draw(s), 4 HNK Gorica win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Apr 27, 2026 | HNK Gorica 1-0 Istra 1961 | HNL |
| Feb 21, 2026 | Istra 1961 0-2 HNK Gorica | HNL |
| Nov 23, 2025 | HNK Gorica 1-0 Istra 1961 | HNL |
| Aug 29, 2025 | Istra 1961 1-0 HNK Gorica | HNL |
| Apr 12, 2025 | HNK Gorica 3-2 Istra 1961 | HNL |
| Jan 31, 2025 | Istra 1961 0-0 HNK Gorica | HNL |
Last archived meeting: HNK Gorica vs Istra 1961 on Apr 27, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Istra 1961 score 1.3 and concede 1.6 goals per match over their last 15; HNK Gorica score 0.7 and concede 1.5. The model gives a 45% probability of over 2.5 goals and 50% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Istra 1961 | 1.3 | 1.6 | 3 | 8/15 | 9/15 |
| HNK Gorica | 0.7 | 1.5 | 3 | 5/15 | 5/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Istra 1961 sit 7th in HNL (4 points from 4 matches) and HNK Gorica sit 10th (0 points from 4 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | Istra 1961 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 9 | 8 | 4 |
| 10 | HNK Gorica | 4 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 2 | 9 | 0 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Istra 1961 vs HNK Gorica?
- The Footlab model makes Istra 1961 the favourite at 44%, against 28% for a draw and 28% for HNK Gorica.
- Where and when is Istra 1961 vs HNK Gorica played?
- Istra 1961 vs HNK Gorica is played on September 19, 2026 at 03:00 PM (UTC) at Stadion Aldo Drosina, in the HNL.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 45% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.