Holyhead Hotspur vs Newtown AFC: prediction and stats
FAW ChampionshipNorth - 8Kick-off on September 12, 2026 at 01:30 PM (UTC)The New Oval, Holyhead, Isle of Anglesey
The Footlab model makes Newtown AFC the favourite at 39%, against 26% for a draw and 35% for Holyhead Hotspur. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 25, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Holyhead Hotspur vs Newtown AFC?
Newtown AFC starts as the favourite with a 121-point Elo edge (1,651 vs 1,530).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Holyhead Hotspur have 6 wins, 2 draws and 7 defeats; Newtown AFC have 7, 1 and 7.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 21, 2026 | Bangor 1876(home) | 2-3 | FAW Championship |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Mold Alexandra(away) | 0-1 | FAW Championship |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Brickfield Rangers(home) | 1-2 | FAW Championship |
| Jul 31, 2026 | Ruthin Town(away) | 2-1 | FAW Championship |
| Apr 18, 2026 | Buckley Town(home) | 5-1 | FAW Championship |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 15, 2026 | Guilsfield(home) | 1-1 | FAW Championship |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Penrhyncoch(home) | 5-0 | FAW Championship |
| Aug 2, 2026 | Gresford Athletic(away) | 3-0 | FAW Championship |
| Apr 18, 2026 | Ruthin Town(away) | 3-2 | FAW Championship |
| Apr 11, 2026 | Llandudno(home) | 1-2 | FAW Championship |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 2 meetings: 1 Holyhead Hotspur win(s), 0 draw(s), 1 Newtown AFC win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Mar 28, 2026 | Holyhead Hotspur 2-0 Newtown AFC | FAW Championship |
| Oct 25, 2025 | Newtown AFC 1-0 Holyhead Hotspur | FAW Championship |
Last archived meeting: Holyhead Hotspur vs Newtown AFC on Mar 28, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Holyhead Hotspur score 1.5 and concede 1.1 goals per match over their last 15; Newtown AFC score 1.7 and concede 1.6. The model gives a 58% probability of over 2.5 goals and 61% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Holyhead Hotspur | 1.5 | 1.1 | 3 | 8/15 | 8/15 |
| Newtown AFC | 1.7 | 1.6 | 5 | 5/15 | 8/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Holyhead Hotspur sit 13th in FAW Championship (3 points from 4 matches) and Newtown AFC sit 5th (7 points from 3 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | Newtown AFC | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 9 | 1 | 7 |
| 13 | Holyhead Hotspur | 4 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 5 | 7 | 3 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Holyhead Hotspur vs Newtown AFC?
- The Footlab model makes Newtown AFC the favourite at 39%, against 26% for a draw and 35% for Holyhead Hotspur.
- Where and when is Holyhead Hotspur vs Newtown AFC played?
- Holyhead Hotspur vs Newtown AFC is played on September 12, 2026 at 01:30 PM (UTC) at The New Oval, in the FAW Championship.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 58% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.