Newtown AFC vs Caerphilly Athletic: prediction and stats
Welsh CupRound of 32Kick-off on November 14, 2026 at 02:00 PM (UTC)G.F. Grigg Latham Park, Ydrenewydd / Newtown, Powys
The Footlab AI model makes Newtown AFC the favourite at 74%, against 16% for a draw and 10% for Caerphilly Athletic. The most likely score is 2-0.
Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome in 54.2% of the 4,751 matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Nov 7, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Newtown AFC vs Caerphilly Athletic?
Newtown AFC starts as the favourite with a 189-point Elo edge (1,692 vs 1,504).
Computed by the Footlab AI model from our own data only, with no AI analysis.
Probable lineup for Newtown AFC vs Caerphilly Athletic
Computed by Footlab AI from our own data only: recent lineups, squads and known absences. It does not take the press or last-minute absences into account.
Newtown AFC
Not enough data to predict the Newtown AFC lineup.
Caerphilly Athletic
Not enough data to predict the Caerphilly Athletic lineup.
Computed on November 7, 2026 at 07:12 AM (UTC).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Newtown AFC have 11 wins, 3 draws and 1 defeat; Caerphilly Athletic have 5, 2 and 8.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 6, 2026 | Ruthin Town(away) | 2-0 | FAW Championship |
| Oct 31, 2026 | Buckley Town(home) | 2-0 | FAW Championship |
| Oct 24, 2026 | Rhyl(away) | 2-2 | FAW Championship |
| Oct 17, 2026 | Llanuwchllyn(home) | 7-0 | Welsh Cup |
| Oct 10, 2026 | Bangor City 1876 FC(home) | 0-0 | FAW Championship |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 6, 2026 | Afan Lido(away) | 2-3 | FAW Championship |
| Oct 30, 2026 | Caerau (Ely)(home) | 0-1 | FAW Championship |
| Oct 23, 2026 | Carmarthen Town(away) | 3-1 | FAW Championship |
| Oct 17, 2026 | Chepstow Town(home) | 1-0 | Welsh Cup |
| Oct 9, 2026 | Newport City(home) | 3-2 | FAW Championship |
How many goals should we expect?
Newtown AFC score 2.3 and concede 0.5 goals per match over their last 15; Caerphilly Athletic score 1.3 and concede 1.8. The model gives a 71% probability of over 2.5 goals and 58% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Newtown AFC | 2.3 | 0.5 | 10 | 4/15 | 7/15 |
| Caerphilly Athletic | 1.3 | 1.8 | 3 | 9/15 | 11/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
A question about Newtown AFC vs Caerphilly Athletic?
Ask Footlab AI: lineups, absences, player form, stats, how the match could unfold.
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How does Footlab AI compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. When bookmakers publish odds for the match, their consensus is built into the calculation: that is what proved most accurate on past matches. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Newtown AFC vs Caerphilly Athletic?
- The Footlab AI model makes Newtown AFC the favourite at 74%, against 16% for a draw and 10% for Caerphilly Athletic.
- Where and when is Newtown AFC vs Caerphilly Athletic played?
- Newtown AFC vs Caerphilly Athletic is played on November 14, 2026 at 02:00 PM (UTC) at G.F. Grigg Latham Park, in the Welsh Cup.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab AI model gives a 71% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome (home win, draw or away win) in 54.2% of the matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing, a level comparable with the bookmakers' favourite. The comparison with bookmakers and the breakdown by competition and Elo gap are published on the accuracy page.
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