Igea Virtus vs Nissa: prediction and stats
Serie D - Girone IGroup I - 6Kick-off on October 4, 2026 at 01:00 PM (UTC)Stadio Carlo Stagno d'Alcontres, Barcellona Pozzo di Gotto
The Footlab model makes Nissa the favourite at 44%, against 28% for a draw and 27% for Igea Virtus. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 24, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Igea Virtus vs Nissa?
Nissa starts as the favourite with a 102-point Elo edge (1,844 vs 1,742).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Igea Virtus have 5 wins, 6 draws and 4 defeats; Nissa have 10, 5 and 0.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| May 3, 2026 | Vigor Lamezia(away) | 1-4 | Serie D - Girone I |
| Apr 26, 2026 | Messina(home) | 1-1 | Serie D - Girone I |
| Apr 22, 2026 | Vibonese(home) | 2-1 | Serie D - Girone I |
| Apr 19, 2026 | Savoia(away) | 0-3 | Serie D - Girone I |
| Apr 2, 2026 | Ragusa(away) | 0-1 | Serie D - Girone I |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| May 17, 2026 | Reggina(home) | 0-0 | Serie D - Girone I |
| May 10, 2026 | Gelbison(home) | 4-0 | Serie D - Girone I |
| May 3, 2026 | Paternò(home) | 4-1 | Serie D - Girone I |
| Apr 26, 2026 | Sambiase(away) | 1-1 | Serie D - Girone I |
| Apr 19, 2026 | Enna(home) | 3-0 | Serie D - Girone I |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 4 meetings: 1 Igea Virtus win(s), 2 draw(s), 1 Nissa win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Mar 1, 2026 | Nissa 1-1 Igea Virtus | Serie D - Girone I |
| Oct 26, 2025 | Igea Virtus 3-2 Nissa | Serie D - Girone I |
| Mar 2, 2025 | Nissa 3-0 Igea Virtus | Serie D - Girone I |
| Oct 27, 2024 | Igea Virtus 0-0 Nissa | Serie D - Girone I |
How many goals should we expect?
Igea Virtus score 1.3 and concede 1.3 goals per match over their last 15; Nissa score 1.9 and concede 0.4. The model gives a 44% probability of over 2.5 goals and 49% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Igea Virtus | 1.3 | 1.3 | 4 | 8/15 | 6/15 |
| Nissa | 1.9 | 0.4 | 9 | 6/15 | 6/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Igea Virtus sit 7th in Serie D - Girone I (53 points from 34 matches) and Nissa sit 2nd (67 points from 34 matches).
The current season has no played match yet: final standings of the 2025-26 season.
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Nissa | 34 | 19 | 10 | 5 | 50 | 26 | 67 |
| 7 | Igea Virtus | 34 | 15 | 13 | 6 | 49 | 36 | 53 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Igea Virtus vs Nissa?
- The Footlab model makes Nissa the favourite at 44%, against 28% for a draw and 27% for Igea Virtus.
- Where and when is Igea Virtus vs Nissa played?
- Igea Virtus vs Nissa is played on October 4, 2026 at 01:00 PM (UTC) at Stadio Carlo Stagno d'Alcontres, in the Serie D - Girone I.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 44% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.