Vigor Lamezia vs CastrumFavara: prediction and stats
Serie D - Girone IGroup I - 6Kick-off on October 4, 2026 at 01:00 PM (UTC)Stadio Guido D'Ippolito, Lamezia Terme
The Footlab model makes Vigor Lamezia the favourite at 52%, against 25% for a draw and 22% for CastrumFavara. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 25, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Vigor Lamezia vs CastrumFavara?
A very open match: only 39 Elo points separate Vigor Lamezia (1,719) and CastrumFavara (1,680).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Vigor Lamezia have 6 wins, 5 draws and 4 defeats; CastrumFavara have 6, 3 and 6.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| May 3, 2026 | Igea Virtus(home) | 4-1 | Serie D - Girone I |
| Apr 26, 2026 | Sancataldese(away) | 1-1 | Serie D - Girone I |
| Apr 19, 2026 | Messina(home) | 1-1 | Serie D - Girone I |
| Apr 15, 2026 | Milazzo(away) | 0-0 | Serie D - Girone I |
| Apr 12, 2026 | Savoia(home) | 1-2 | Serie D - Girone I |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| May 3, 2026 | Enna(home) | 2-2 | Serie D - Girone I |
| Apr 26, 2026 | Paternò(away) | 3-1 | Serie D - Girone I |
| Apr 19, 2026 | Gela(home) | 3-1 | Serie D - Girone I |
| Apr 12, 2026 | AC Palermo(away) | 3-0 | Serie D - Girone I |
| Apr 2, 2026 | Acireale(home) | 1-1 | Serie D - Girone I |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 2 meetings: 0 Vigor Lamezia win(s), 1 draw(s), 1 CastrumFavara win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Mar 15, 2026 | Vigor Lamezia 1-2 CastrumFavara | Serie D - Girone I |
| Nov 2, 2025 | CastrumFavara 1-1 Vigor Lamezia | Serie D - Girone I |
Last archived meeting: Vigor Lamezia vs CastrumFavara on Mar 15, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Vigor Lamezia score 1.6 and concede 0.9 goals per match over their last 15; CastrumFavara score 1.5 and concede 1.3. The model gives a 51% probability of over 2.5 goals and 53% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Vigor Lamezia | 1.6 | 0.9 | 6 | 8/15 | 5/15 |
| CastrumFavara | 1.5 | 1.3 | 2 | 10/15 | 9/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Vigor Lamezia sit 10th in Serie D - Girone I (42 points from 34 matches) and CastrumFavara sit 11th (38 points from 34 matches).
The current season has no played match yet: final standings of the 2025-26 season.
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | Vigor Lamezia | 34 | 11 | 9 | 14 | 43 | 35 | 42 |
| 11 | CastrumFavara | 34 | 10 | 8 | 16 | 38 | 47 | 38 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Vigor Lamezia vs CastrumFavara?
- The Footlab model makes Vigor Lamezia the favourite at 52%, against 25% for a draw and 22% for CastrumFavara.
- Where and when is Vigor Lamezia vs CastrumFavara played?
- Vigor Lamezia vs CastrumFavara is played on October 4, 2026 at 01:00 PM (UTC) at Stadio Guido D'Ippolito, in the Serie D - Girone I.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 51% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.