Iliria Fushë-Krujë vs Pogradeci: prediction and stats
1st DivisionRegular Season - 1Kick-off on September 5, 2026 at 03:00 PM (UTC)Stadiumi Redi Maloku, Fushë-Krujë
The Footlab model makes Pogradeci the favourite at 45%, against 28% for a draw and 27% for Iliria Fushë-Krujë. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 26, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Iliria Fushë-Krujë vs Pogradeci?
Pogradeci starts as the favourite with a 138-point Elo edge (1,735 vs 1,596).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Iliria Fushë-Krujë have 6 wins, 5 draws and 4 defeats; Pogradeci have 10, 2 and 3.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| May 7, 2026 | Besa Kavajë(home) | 0-2 | Superliga |
| May 3, 2026 | Korabi Peshkopi(away) | 1-1 | 1st Division |
| Apr 25, 2026 | Apolonia Fier(home) | 2-1 | 1st Division |
| Apr 19, 2026 | Lushnja(away) | 3-0 | 1st Division |
| Apr 11, 2026 | Luftëtari(home) | 1-2 | 1st Division |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| May 16, 2026 | Teuta Durrës(away) | 0-1 | Superliga |
| May 11, 2026 | Besa Kavajë(home) | 1-0 | Superliga |
| May 7, 2026 | Kastrioti Krujë(home) | 3-0 | Superliga |
| May 3, 2026 | Luftëtari(away) | 0-3 | 1st Division |
| Apr 25, 2026 | Skenderbeu Korce(home) | 1-1 | 1st Division |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 1 Iliria Fushë-Krujë win(s), 3 draw(s), 2 Pogradeci win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Mar 18, 2026 | Pogradeci 3-0 Iliria Fushë-Krujë | 1st Division |
| Nov 29, 2025 | Pogradeci 0-0 Iliria Fushë-Krujë | 1st Division |
| Aug 30, 2025 | Iliria Fushë-Krujë 0-0 Pogradeci | 1st Division |
| Dec 14, 2019 | Iliria Fushë-Krujë 0-0 Pogradeci | 1st Division |
| Sep 21, 2019 | Pogradeci 3-0 Iliria Fushë-Krujë | 1st Division |
| Feb 3, 2018 | Pogradeci 0-1 Iliria Fushë-Krujë | 1st Division |
Last archived meeting: Pogradeci vs Iliria Fushë-Krujë on Mar 18, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Iliria Fushë-Krujë score 1.1 and concede 0.9 goals per match over their last 15; Pogradeci score 2.2 and concede 0.9. The model gives a 44% probability of over 2.5 goals and 49% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Iliria Fushë-Krujë | 1.1 | 0.9 | 5 | 7/15 | 5/15 |
| Pogradeci | 2.2 | 0.9 | 5 | 7/15 | 10/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Iliria Fushë-Krujë sit 4th in 1st Division (45 points from 33 matches) and Pogradeci sit 3rd (68 points from 33 matches).
The current season has no played match yet: final standings of the 2025-26 season.
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | Pogradeci | 33 | 20 | 8 | 5 | 63 | 31 | 68 |
| 4 | Iliria Fushë-Krujë | 33 | 11 | 12 | 10 | 32 | 33 | 45 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Iliria Fushë-Krujë vs Pogradeci?
- The Footlab model makes Pogradeci the favourite at 45%, against 28% for a draw and 27% for Iliria Fushë-Krujë.
- Where and when is Iliria Fushë-Krujë vs Pogradeci played?
- Iliria Fushë-Krujë vs Pogradeci is played on September 5, 2026 at 03:00 PM (UTC) at Stadiumi Redi Maloku, in the 1st Division.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 44% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.