Illueca vs Fraga: prediction and stats
Tercera División RFEF - Group 17Group 17 - 12Kick-off on November 22, 2026 at 04:00 PM (UTC)Estadio Papa Luna, Illueca
The Footlab model makes Illueca the favourite at 41%, against 28% for a draw and 31% for Fraga. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 25, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Illueca vs Fraga?
A very open match: only 9 Elo points separate Illueca (1,674) and Fraga (1,683).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Illueca have 6 wins, 3 draws and 6 defeats; Fraga have 3, 5 and 7.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| May 10, 2026 | CDJ Tamarite(away) | 1-0 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 17 |
| May 3, 2026 | Atlético Monzón(home) | 2-3 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 17 |
| Apr 23, 2026 | Almudévar(away) | 1-0 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 17 |
| Apr 19, 2026 | Cariñena(home) | 1-1 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 17 |
| Apr 12, 2026 | Calamocha(away) | 0-1 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 17 |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| May 11, 2025 | Almudévar(away) | 1-5 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 17 |
| May 4, 2025 | Andorra CF(home) | 2-0 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 17 |
| Apr 27, 2025 | Binéfar(away) | 1-3 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 17 |
| Apr 17, 2025 | Zuera(home) | 0-0 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 17 |
| Apr 13, 2025 | Huesca II(away) | 0-1 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 17 |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 5 meetings: 1 Illueca win(s), 2 draw(s), 2 Fraga win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Mar 28, 2024 | Fraga 4-0 Illueca | Tercera División RFEF - Group 17 |
| Oct 28, 2023 | Illueca 1-2 Fraga | Tercera División RFEF - Group 17 |
| Feb 17, 2021 | Illueca 1-0 Fraga | Tercera División RFEF - Group 17 |
| Dec 8, 2020 | Fraga 0-0 Illueca | Tercera División RFEF - Group 17 |
| Nov 17, 2019 | Fraga 0-0 Illueca | Tercera División RFEF - Group 17 |
How many goals should we expect?
Illueca score 1.1 and concede 1.3 goals per match over their last 15; Fraga score 1.0 and concede 1.5. The model gives a 46% probability of over 2.5 goals and 52% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Illueca | 1.1 | 1.3 | 3 | 8/15 | 6/15 |
| Fraga | 1.0 | 1.5 | 3 | 8/15 | 6/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
The current season has no played match yet: final standings of the 2025-26 season.
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12 | Illueca | 34 | 9 | 11 | 14 | 35 | 51 | 38 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Illueca vs Fraga?
- The Footlab model makes Illueca the favourite at 41%, against 28% for a draw and 31% for Fraga.
- Where and when is Illueca vs Fraga played?
- Illueca vs Fraga is played on November 22, 2026 at 04:00 PM (UTC) at Estadio Papa Luna, in the Tercera División RFEF - Group 17.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 46% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.