Where and when is Independiente del Valle vs Deportes Tolima played?

Independiente del Valle vs Deportes Tolima is played on August 26, 2026 at 12:30 AM (UTC) at Estadio Banco Guayaquil, in the CONMEBOL Libertadores.

Will there be over 2.5 goals?

The Footlab model gives a 48% probability of at least three goals in this match.

How reliable is this prediction?

The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.

Match

Independiente del Valle vs Deportes Tolima: prediction and stats

CONMEBOL LibertadoresRound of 16Kick-off on August 26, 2026 at 12:30 AM (UTC)Estadio Banco Guayaquil, Quito

Independiente del Valle

Deportes Tolima

The Footlab model makes Independiente del Valle the favourite at 65%, against 22% for a draw and 13% for Deportes Tolima. The most likely score is 1-0.

This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy

Probabilities recomputed on Aug 22, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.

Who will win Independiente del Valle vs Deportes Tolima?

Independiente del Valle starts as the favourite with a 193-point Elo edge (2,010 vs 1,817).

Independiente del Valle win65 %

Draw22 %

Deportes Tolima win13 %

What is the recent form of both teams?

Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Independiente del Valle have 15 wins, 0 draws and 0 defeats; Deportes Tolima have 7, 2 and 6.

The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.

Independiente del Valle
Date	Opponent	Score	Competition
Aug 22, 2026	Leones del Norte(away)	3-2	Liga Pro
Aug 19, 2026	Deportes Tolima(away)	1-0	CONMEBOL Libertadores
Aug 15, 2026	Delfin SC(home)	3-2	Liga Pro
Aug 8, 2026	LDU de Quito(away)	2-0	Liga Pro
Aug 2, 2026	Deportivo Cuenca(home)	1-0	Liga Pro

Deportes Tolima
Date	Opponent	Score	Competition
Aug 19, 2026	Independiente del Valle(home)	0-1	CONMEBOL Libertadores
Aug 8, 2026	Internacional de Bogota(home)	2-1	Primera A
Aug 4, 2026	Independiente Medellin(home)	2-3	Primera A
Aug 1, 2026	Alianza Valledupar(away)	2-1	Primera A
Jul 28, 2026	Quindio(away)	1-2	Copa Colombia

What does the head-to-head say?

Across the last 3 meetings: 1 Independiente del Valle win(s), 1 draw(s), 1 Deportes Tolima win(s).

Date	Score	Competition
Aug 19, 2026	Deportes Tolima 0-1 Independiente del Valle	CONMEBOL Libertadores
May 5, 2022	Deportes Tolima 1-0 Independiente del Valle	CONMEBOL Libertadores
Apr 14, 2022	Independiente del Valle 2-2 Deportes Tolima	CONMEBOL Libertadores

Last archived meeting: Deportes Tolima vs Independiente del Valle on Aug 19, 2026

How many goals should we expect?

Independiente del Valle score 2.7 and concede 0.7 goals per match over their last 15; Deportes Tolima score 1.3 and concede 1.2. The model gives a 48% probability of over 2.5 goals and 43% for both teams to score.

Club	Goals scored / match	Goals conceded / match	Clean sheets	Both teams scored	Over 2.5 goals
Independiente del Valle	2.7	0.7	9	6/15	9/15
Deportes Tolima	1.3	1.2	4	8/15	9/15

Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.

Where do both teams sit in the table?

Independiente del Valle sit 1st in CONMEBOL Libertadores (13 points from 6 matches) and Deportes Tolima sit 2nd (8 points from 6 matches).

2026 standings
#	Club	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Independiente del Valle	6	4	1	1	11	6	13
2	Deportes Tolima	6	2	2	2	7	6	8

Verdict, probable XI and verified absences

The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.

Open the full match card in the app

No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.

How does Footlab compute this prediction?

The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite for Independiente del Valle vs Deportes Tolima?: The Footlab model makes Independiente del Valle the favourite at 65%, against 22% for a draw and 13% for Deportes Tolima.
Where and when is Independiente del Valle vs Deportes Tolima played?: Independiente del Valle vs Deportes Tolima is played on August 26, 2026 at 12:30 AM (UTC) at Estadio Banco Guayaquil, in the CONMEBOL Libertadores.
Will there be over 2.5 goals?: The Footlab model gives a 48% probability of at least three goals in this match.
How reliable is this prediction?: The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.