Inhulets vs Yarud Mariupol': prediction and stats
Persha LigaRegular Season - 27Kick-off on May 15, 2027 at 04:00 PM (UTC)Stadion Inhulets, Petrove
The Footlab AI model makes Yarud Mariupol' the favourite at 56%, against 25% for a draw and 19% for Inhulets. The most likely score is 0-1.
Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome in 53.8% of the 5,232 matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Nov 10, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Inhulets vs Yarud Mariupol'?
On Elo ratings, Inhulets has 1,707 points and Yarud Mariupol' 1,757.
Computed by the Footlab AI model from our own data only, with no AI analysis.
Probable lineup for Inhulets vs Yarud Mariupol'
Computed by Footlab AI from our own data only: recent lineups, squads and known absences. It does not take the press or last-minute absences into account.
Inhulets
4-3-3- 78O. Evtushenko
- 11Y. Profatylo
- 52O. Zhadan
- 30D. Tuzenko
- 22Danylo Yanyuk
- 17T. Khussin
- 4V. Dubiley
- 5Y. Dankovskyi
- 8A. Benedyuk
- 3M. Dzyubin
- 24O. Slutskyi
Yarud Mariupol'
4-3-3- 6E. Gunichev
- 9S. Kyslenko
- 29A. Remenyak
- 10P. Orikhovskyi
- 8A. Kukharuk
- 17P. Maletsky
- 15O. Chornomorets
- 33V. Sydorenko
- 20O. Nikolyshyn
- 2R. Gagun
- 1V. Zhupanskyi
Computed on November 10, 2026 at 02:35 AM (UTC).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Inhulets have 5 wins, 3 draws and 7 defeats; Yarud Mariupol' have 9, 4 and 2.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 6, 2026 | Kulykiv(home) | 1-1 | Persha Liga |
| Oct 31, 2026 | Lokomotiv Kyiv(away) | 1-2 | Persha Liga |
| Oct 25, 2026 | Kolos Kovalivka II(home) | 2-0 | Persha Liga |
| Oct 17, 2026 | Yarud Mariupol'(away) | 1-4 | Persha Liga |
| Oct 10, 2026 | Ahrobiznes Volochysk(home) | 0-1 | Persha Liga |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 7, 2026 | Prykarpattia(away) | 1-1 | Persha Liga |
| Nov 1, 2026 | Chernihiv(home) | 3-1 | Persha Liga |
| Oct 23, 2026 | Metal Kharkiv(away) | 2-0 | Persha Liga |
| Oct 17, 2026 | Inhulets(home) | 4-1 | Persha Liga |
| Oct 11, 2026 | UCSA(away) | 2-1 | Persha Liga |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 5 meetings: 1 Inhulets win, 2 draws, 2 Yarud Mariupol' wins.
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Oct 17, 2026 | Yarud Mariupol' 4-1 Inhulets | Persha Liga |
| Apr 19, 2026 | Yarud Mariupol' 1-1 Inhulets | Persha Liga |
| Oct 3, 2025 | Inhulets 2-0 Yarud Mariupol' | Persha Liga |
| Oct 28, 2023 | Inhulets 0-1 Yarud Mariupol' | Persha Liga |
| Aug 28, 2023 | Yarud Mariupol' 1-1 Inhulets | Persha Liga |
Last archived meeting: Yarud Mariupol' vs Inhulets on Oct 17, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Inhulets score 1.1 and concede 1.5 goals per match over their last 15; Yarud Mariupol' score 2.0 and concede 0.9. The model gives a 47% probability of over 2.5 goals and 48% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Inhulets | 1.1 | 1.5 | 3 | 9/15 | 9/15 |
| Yarud Mariupol' | 2.0 | 0.9 | 4 | 9/15 | 8/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Inhulets sit 10th in Persha Liga (18 points from 14 matches) and Yarud Mariupol' sit 1st (28 points from 15 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Yarud Mariupol' | 15 | 8 | 4 | 3 | 24 | 15 | 28 |
| 10 | Inhulets | 14 | 5 | 3 | 6 | 15 | 19 | 18 |
A question about Inhulets vs Yarud Mariupol'?
Ask Footlab AI: lineups, absences, player form, stats, how the match could unfold.
Sign-in required. No odds displayed, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab AI compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. When bookmakers publish odds for the match, their consensus is built into the calculation: that is what proved most accurate on past matches. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Inhulets vs Yarud Mariupol'?
- The Footlab AI model makes Yarud Mariupol' the favourite at 56%, against 25% for a draw and 19% for Inhulets.
- Where and when is Inhulets vs Yarud Mariupol' played?
- Inhulets vs Yarud Mariupol' is played on May 15, 2027 at 04:00 PM (UTC) at Stadion Inhulets, in the Persha Liga.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab AI model gives a 47% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome (home win, draw or away win) in 53.8% of the matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing, a level comparable with the bookmakers' favourite. The comparison with bookmakers and the breakdown by competition and Elo gap are published on the accuracy page.