Isidro Metapán vs Inca Aruba: prediction and stats
Primera DivisionApertura - 8Kick-off on September 6, 2026 at 01:00 AM (UTC)Estadio Jorge Calero Suárez, Metapán
The Footlab model makes Isidro Metapán the favourite at 62%, against 23% for a draw and 15% for Inca Aruba. The most likely score is 1-0.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 26, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Isidro Metapán vs Inca Aruba?
Isidro Metapán starts as the favourite with a 135-point Elo edge (1,626 vs 1,491).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Isidro Metapán have 5 wins, 4 draws and 6 defeats; Inca Aruba have 0, 1 and 5.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 23, 2026 | Alianza(home) | 2-0 | Primera Division |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Fuerte San Francisco(away) | 0-1 | Primera Division |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Águila(home) | 2-1 | Primera Division |
| Aug 2, 2026 | Atletico Balboa(away) | 0-0 | Primera Division |
| Jul 31, 2026 | FAS(home) | 2-0 | Primera Division |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Inter(away) | 1-4 | Primera Division |
| Aug 16, 2026 | Firpo(home) | 0-0 | Primera Division |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Platense(away) | 0-2 | Primera Division |
| Aug 2, 2026 | FAS(home) | 0-4 | Primera Division |
| Jul 29, 2026 | Municipal Limeño(away) | 0-2 | Primera Division |
How many goals should we expect?
Isidro Metapán score 1.2 and concede 1.3 goals per match over their last 15; Inca Aruba score 0.3 and concede 2.5. The model gives a 49% probability of over 2.5 goals and 46% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Isidro Metapán | 1.2 | 1.3 | 4 | 8/15 | 6/15 |
| Inca Aruba | 0.3 | 2.5 | 1 | 2/6 | 3/6 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Isidro Metapán sit 1st in Primera Division (13 points from 6 matches) and Inca Aruba sit 12th (1 points from 6 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Isidro Metapán | 6 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 10 | 4 | 13 |
| 12 | Inca Aruba | 6 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 2 | 15 | 1 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Isidro Metapán vs Inca Aruba?
- The Footlab model makes Isidro Metapán the favourite at 62%, against 23% for a draw and 15% for Inca Aruba.
- Where and when is Isidro Metapán vs Inca Aruba played?
- Isidro Metapán vs Inca Aruba is played on September 6, 2026 at 01:00 AM (UTC) at Estadio Jorge Calero Suárez, in the Primera Division.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 49% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.