Fuerte San Francisco vs Inca Aruba: prediction and stats
Primera DivisionApertura - 22Kick-off on November 21, 2026 at 09:30 PM (UTC)Estadio Correcaminos, San Francisco Gotera
The Footlab model makes Fuerte San Francisco the favourite at 45%, against 29% for a draw and 26% for Inca Aruba. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 26, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Fuerte San Francisco vs Inca Aruba?
A very open match: only 14 Elo points separate Fuerte San Francisco (1,493) and Inca Aruba (1,507).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Fuerte San Francisco have 3 wins, 6 draws and 6 defeats; Inca Aruba have 0, 1 and 5.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 23, 2026 | Atletico Balboa(away) | 0-1 | Primera Division |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Isidro Metapán(home) | 1-0 | Primera Division |
| Aug 9, 2026 | Cacahuatique(away) | 0-0 | Primera Division |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Inter(home) | 2-2 | Primera Division |
| Jul 30, 2026 | Firpo(away) | 0-4 | Primera Division |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Inter(away) | 1-4 | Primera Division |
| Aug 16, 2026 | Firpo(home) | 0-0 | Primera Division |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Platense(away) | 0-2 | Primera Division |
| Aug 2, 2026 | FAS(home) | 0-4 | Primera Division |
| Jul 29, 2026 | Municipal Limeño(away) | 0-2 | Primera Division |
How many goals should we expect?
Fuerte San Francisco score 0.7 and concede 1.2 goals per match over their last 15; Inca Aruba score 0.3 and concede 2.5. The model gives a 41% probability of over 2.5 goals and 47% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fuerte San Francisco | 0.7 | 1.2 | 3 | 6/15 | 3/15 |
| Inca Aruba | 0.3 | 2.5 | 1 | 2/6 | 3/6 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Fuerte San Francisco sit 9th in Primera Division (6 points from 6 matches) and Inca Aruba sit 12th (1 points from 6 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | Fuerte San Francisco | 6 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 4 | 8 | 6 |
| 12 | Inca Aruba | 6 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 2 | 15 | 1 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Fuerte San Francisco vs Inca Aruba?
- The Footlab model makes Fuerte San Francisco the favourite at 45%, against 29% for a draw and 26% for Inca Aruba.
- Where and when is Fuerte San Francisco vs Inca Aruba played?
- Fuerte San Francisco vs Inca Aruba is played on November 21, 2026 at 09:30 PM (UTC) at Estadio Correcaminos, in the Primera Division.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 41% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.