Iskra Smolensk vs Zvezda St. Petersburg: prediction and stats
Second League - Group 2Group 2 - 25Kick-off on September 26, 2026 at 01:00 PM (UTC)
The Footlab model makes Zvezda St. Petersburg the favourite at 49%, against 25% for a draw and 27% for Iskra Smolensk. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 26, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Iskra Smolensk vs Zvezda St. Petersburg?
A very open match: only 51 Elo points separate Iskra Smolensk (1,536) and Zvezda St. Petersburg (1,587).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Iskra Smolensk have 2 wins, 3 draws and 10 defeats; Zvezda St. Petersburg have 3, 7 and 5.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 23, 2026 | Yenisey II(away) | 0-4 | Second League - Group 2 |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Chertanovo Moscow(home) | 0-3 | Second League - Group 2 |
| Aug 12, 2026 | Kaluga(away) | 0-5 | Cup |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Kosmos Dolgoprudny(away) | 0-1 | Second League - Group 2 |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Dinamo St. Petersburg(home) | 1-1 | Second League - Group 2 |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 16, 2026 | Dinamo Vologda(home) | 1-1 | Second League - Group 2 |
| Aug 12, 2026 | Luki-Energiya(home) | 1-2 | Cup |
| Aug 9, 2026 | Baltika II(away) | 3-4 | Second League - Group 2 |
| Aug 2, 2026 | Yenisey II(home) | 4-1 | Second League - Group 2 |
| Jul 26, 2026 | Chertanovo Moscow(away) | 1-1 | Second League - Group 2 |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 1 meetings: 0 Iskra Smolensk win(s), 1 draw(s), 0 Zvezda St. Petersburg win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Jun 6, 2026 | Zvezda St. Petersburg 1-1 Iskra Smolensk | Second League - Group 2 |
Last archived meeting: Zvezda St. Petersburg vs Iskra Smolensk on Jun 6, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Iskra Smolensk score 0.8 and concede 2.4 goals per match over their last 15; Zvezda St. Petersburg score 1.3 and concede 1.5. The model gives a 59% probability of over 2.5 goals and 60% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Iskra Smolensk | 0.8 | 2.4 | 1 | 8/15 | 9/15 |
| Zvezda St. Petersburg | 1.3 | 1.5 | 2 | 11/15 | 7/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Iskra Smolensk sit 13th in Second League - Group 2 (10 points from 12 matches) and Zvezda St. Petersburg sit 9th (12 points from 11 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | Zvezda St. Petersburg | 11 | 2 | 6 | 3 | 10 | 15 | 12 |
| 11 | Zvezda St. Petersburg | 18 | 4 | 9 | 5 | 24 | 26 | 21 |
| 13 | Iskra Smolensk | 12 | 2 | 4 | 6 | 11 | 20 | 10 |
| 15 | Iskra Smolensk | 19 | 2 | 5 | 12 | 15 | 41 | 11 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Iskra Smolensk vs Zvezda St. Petersburg?
- The Footlab model makes Zvezda St. Petersburg the favourite at 49%, against 25% for a draw and 27% for Iskra Smolensk.
- Where and when is Iskra Smolensk vs Zvezda St. Petersburg played?
- Iskra Smolensk vs Zvezda St. Petersburg is played on September 26, 2026 at 01:00 PM (UTC), in the Second League - Group 2.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 59% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.