İstanbulspor vs Esenler Erokspor: prediction and stats
1. LigRegular Season - 9Kick-off on October 11, 2026 at 04:00 PM (UTC)Esenyurt Necmi Kadıoğlu Stadyumu, İstanbul
The Footlab model makes Esenler Erokspor the favourite at 40%, against 26% for a draw and 33% for İstanbulspor. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 26, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win İstanbulspor vs Esenler Erokspor?
A very open match: only 94 Elo points separate İstanbulspor (1,812) and Esenler Erokspor (1,906).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, İstanbulspor have 4 wins, 4 draws and 7 defeats; Esenler Erokspor have 5, 6 and 4.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 23, 2026 | Vanspor FK(away) | 2-3 | 1. Lig |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Bodrum FK(home) | 2-2 | 1. Lig |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Bandırmaspor(away) | 0-3 | 1. Lig |
| May 1, 2026 | Adana Demirspor(home) | 8-1 | 1. Lig |
| Apr 25, 2026 | Vanspor FK(away) | 3-1 | 1. Lig |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Ümraniyespor(away) | 1-1 | 1. Lig |
| Aug 14, 2026 | Sarıyer(home) | 1-1 | 1. Lig |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Sivasspor(away) | 0-0 | 1. Lig |
| May 24, 2026 | Çorum FK(home) | 0-2 | 1. Lig |
| May 2, 2026 | Pendikspor(home) | 1-1 | 1. Lig |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 5 meetings: 3 İstanbulspor win(s), 0 draw(s), 2 Esenler Erokspor win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Feb 17, 2026 | İstanbulspor 1-4 Esenler Erokspor | 1. Lig |
| Sep 24, 2025 | Esenler Erokspor 5-0 İstanbulspor | 1. Lig |
| May 4, 2025 | Esenler Erokspor 0-3 İstanbulspor | 1. Lig |
| Jan 5, 2025 | İstanbulspor 4-0 Esenler Erokspor | 1. Lig |
| Dec 18, 2024 | Esenler Erokspor 1-2 İstanbulspor | Türkiye Kupası |
Last archived meeting: İstanbulspor vs Esenler Erokspor on Feb 17, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
İstanbulspor score 1.7 and concede 1.6 goals per match over their last 15; Esenler Erokspor score 1.2 and concede 1.1. The model gives a 55% probability of over 2.5 goals and 59% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| İstanbulspor | 1.7 | 1.6 | 1 | 9/15 | 10/15 |
| Esenler Erokspor | 1.2 | 1.1 | 3 | 9/15 | 4/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
İstanbulspor sit 19th in 1. Lig (1 points from 3 matches) and Esenler Erokspor sit 11th (3 points from 3 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 | Esenler Erokspor | 3 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 3 |
| 19 | İstanbulspor | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 8 | 1 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for İstanbulspor vs Esenler Erokspor?
- The Footlab model makes Esenler Erokspor the favourite at 40%, against 26% for a draw and 33% for İstanbulspor.
- Where and when is İstanbulspor vs Esenler Erokspor played?
- İstanbulspor vs Esenler Erokspor is played on October 11, 2026 at 04:00 PM (UTC) at Esenyurt Necmi Kadıoğlu Stadyumu, in the 1. Lig.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 55% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.