Jamaica vs Mexico: prediction and stats
CONCACAF Nations LeagueQuarter-finalsKick-off on November 9, 2026 at 09:00 PM (UTC)Catherine Hall Sports Complex, Montego Bay
The Footlab AI model makes Mexico the favourite at 54%, against 23% for a draw and 23% for Jamaica. The most likely score is 1-1. If Mexico wins, the most likely score is 1-2.
Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome in 54.2% of the 4,444 matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Nov 4, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Jamaica vs Mexico?
Mexico starts as the favourite with a 123-point Elo edge (1,765 vs 1,642).
Computed by the Footlab AI model from our own data only, with no AI analysis.
Probable lineup for Jamaica vs Mexico
Computed by Footlab AI from our own data only: recent lineups, squads and known absences. It does not take the press or last-minute absences into account.
Jamaica
4-3-3- 10K. Dixon
- 12J. East
- 11T. Campbell
- 16Karoy Anderson
- 20K. Ming
- 5Courtney Clarke
- 6R. King
- 2M. Freckleton
- 17D. Lowe
- 22R. Webster
- 1A. Blake
Mexico
4-3-3- 25R. Alvarado
- 9G. Berterame
- 14A. González
- 6É. Lira
- 8Álvaro Fidalgo
- 18O. Vargas
- 23J. Gallardo
- 15I. Reyes
- 27E. López
- 5J. Vásquez
- 1J. Rangel
Computed on November 4, 2026 at 10:20 AM (UTC).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Jamaica have 7 wins, 4 draws and 4 defeats; Mexico have 8, 4 and 3.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 6, 2026 | Honduras(away) | 1-1 | CONCACAF Nations League |
| Oct 3, 2026 | El Salvador(away) | 2-0 | CONCACAF Nations League |
| Sep 29, 2026 | Honduras(home) | 0-1 | CONCACAF Nations League |
| Sep 26, 2026 | Guatemala(home) | 3-2 | CONCACAF Nations League |
| Jun 6, 2026 | South Africa(home) | 1-1 | Friendlies |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 7, 2026 | Chile(home) | 0-2 | Friendlies |
| Oct 4, 2026 | USA(away) | 0-3 | Friendlies |
| Sep 30, 2026 | Peru(home) | 1-1 | Friendlies |
| Sep 27, 2026 | Colombia(home) | 1-1 | Friendlies |
| Jul 6, 2026 | England(home) | 2-3 | World Cup |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 0 Jamaica wins, 2 draws, 4 Mexico wins.
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Jun 23, 2024 | Mexico 1-0 Jamaica | Copa America |
| Jul 13, 2023 | Jamaica 0-3 Mexico | CONCACAF Gold Cup |
| Mar 27, 2023 | Mexico 2-2 Jamaica | CONCACAF Nations League |
| Jun 15, 2022 | Jamaica 1-1 Mexico | CONCACAF Nations League |
| Jan 28, 2022 | Jamaica 1-2 Mexico | World Cup - Qualification CONCACAF |
| Sep 3, 2021 | Mexico 2-1 Jamaica | World Cup - Qualification CONCACAF |
How many goals should we expect?
Jamaica score 1.2 and concede 0.8 goals per match over their last 15; Mexico score 1.7 and concede 0.8. The model gives a 65% probability of over 2.5 goals and 64% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jamaica | 1.2 | 0.8 | 7 | 4/15 | 3/15 |
| Mexico | 1.7 | 0.8 | 8 | 5/15 | 5/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
A question about Jamaica vs Mexico?
Ask Footlab AI: lineups, absences, player form, stats, how the match could unfold.
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How does Footlab AI compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. When bookmakers publish odds for the match, their consensus is built into the calculation: that is what proved most accurate on past matches. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Jamaica vs Mexico?
- The Footlab AI model makes Mexico the favourite at 54%, against 23% for a draw and 23% for Jamaica.
- Where and when is Jamaica vs Mexico played?
- Jamaica vs Mexico is played on November 9, 2026 at 09:00 PM (UTC) at Catherine Hall Sports Complex, in the CONCACAF Nations League.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab AI model gives a 65% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome (home win, draw or away win) in 54.2% of the matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing, a level comparable with the bookmakers' favourite. The comparison with bookmakers and the breakdown by competition and Elo gap are published on the accuracy page.