Japan vs Brazil: prediction and stats
FriendliesFriendly InternationalKick-off on November 14, 2026 at 10:15 AM (UTC)Saitama Stadium 2002, Saitama
The Footlab AI model makes Japan the favourite at 44%, against 28% for a draw and 28% for Brazil. The most likely score is 1-1. If Japan wins, the most likely score is 1-0.
Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome in 54.2% of the 4,754 matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Nov 7, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Japan vs Brazil?
A very open match: only 25 Elo points separate Japan (1,854) and Brazil (1,830).
Computed by the Footlab AI model from our own data only, with no AI analysis.
Probable lineup for Japan vs Brazil
Computed by Footlab AI from our own data only: recent lineups, squads and known absences. It does not take the press or last-minute absences into account.
Japan
3-4-2-1- 18A. Ueda
- 10R. Dōan
- 24K. Sano
- 15D. Kamada
- 20T. Kubo
- 2S. Nakano
- 11D. Maeda
- 3A. Seko
- 21H. Ito
- 25J. Suzuki
- 1Z. Suzuki
Brazil
4-3-3- 7Vinícius Júnior
- 11Estêvão
- 19Pedro
- 5Danilo Santos
- 25Gabriel Bontempo
- 8Bruno Guimarães
- 4Marquinhos
- 6Douglas Santos
- 13Matheuzinho
- 15Arthur Dias
- 23Pedro Luccas
Known absences
RaphinhaOut · Hamstring injury
Computed on November 7, 2026 at 07:24 AM (UTC).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Japan have 10 wins, 4 draws and 1 defeat; Brazil have 9, 3 and 3.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 5, 2026 | New Zealand(home) | 2-1 | Kirin Cup |
| Oct 1, 2026 | Ecuador(home) | 0-0 | Kirin Cup |
| Sep 28, 2026 | Venezuela(home) | 2-1 | Friendlies |
| Sep 24, 2026 | Uruguay(home) | 3-1 | Friendlies |
| Jun 29, 2026 | Brazil(away) | 1-2 | World Cup |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 3, 2026 | India(away) | 4-0 | Friendlies |
| Sep 29, 2026 | Australia(away) | 4-2 | Friendlies |
| Sep 25, 2026 | Australia(away) | 1-1 | Friendlies |
| Jul 5, 2026 | Norway(home) | 1-2 | World Cup |
| Jun 29, 2026 | Japan(home) | 2-1 | World Cup |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 5 meetings: 1 Japan win, 0 draws, 4 Brazil wins.
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Jun 29, 2026 | Brazil 2-1 Japan | World Cup |
| Oct 14, 2025 | Japan 3-2 Brazil | Friendlies |
| Jun 6, 2022 | Japan 0-1 Brazil | Friendlies |
| Nov 10, 2017 | Japan 1-3 Brazil | Friendlies |
| Jun 15, 2013 | Brazil 3-0 Japan | Confederations Cup |
How many goals should we expect?
Japan score 1.9 and concede 0.8 goals per match over their last 15; Brazil score 2.4 and concede 1.1. The model gives a 45% probability of over 2.5 goals and 50% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Japan | 1.9 | 0.8 | 7 | 8/15 | 9/15 |
| Brazil | 2.4 | 1.1 | 4 | 11/15 | 11/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
A question about Japan vs Brazil?
Ask Footlab AI: lineups, absences, player form, stats, how the match could unfold.
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How does Footlab AI compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. When bookmakers publish odds for the match, their consensus is built into the calculation: that is what proved most accurate on past matches. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Japan vs Brazil?
- The Footlab AI model makes Japan the favourite at 44%, against 28% for a draw and 28% for Brazil.
- Where and when is Japan vs Brazil played?
- Japan vs Brazil is played on November 14, 2026 at 10:15 AM (UTC) at Saitama Stadium 2002, in the Friendlies.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab AI model gives a 45% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome (home win, draw or away win) in 54.2% of the matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing, a level comparable with the bookmakers' favourite. The comparison with bookmakers and the breakdown by competition and Elo gap are published on the accuracy page.