Japan vs Indonesia: prediction and stats
Asian CupGroup Stage - 1Kick-off on January 11, 2027 at 02:00 PM (UTC)Panasonic Stadium Suita, Suita
The Footlab model makes Japan the favourite at 55%, against 25% for a draw and 20% for Indonesia. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Limited history for at least one of the two teams: read this prediction with caution.
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 23, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Japan vs Indonesia?
Japan is a heavy favourite: 1,861 Elo points against 1,522 — a 339-point gap.
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Japan have 10 wins, 4 draws and 1 defeats; Indonesia have 8, 2 and 5.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jun 25, 2026 | Sweden(home) | 1-1 | World Cup |
| Jun 21, 2026 | Tunisia(away) | 4-0 | World Cup |
| Jun 14, 2026 | Netherlands(away) | 2-2 | World Cup |
| May 31, 2026 | Iceland(home) | 1-0 | Friendlies |
| Mar 31, 2026 | England(away) | 1-0 | Friendlies |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 7, 2026 | Singapore(away) | 1-1 | ASEAN Championship |
| Aug 3, 2026 | Vietnam(home) | 0-3 | ASEAN Championship |
| Jul 31, 2026 | Timor-Leste(away) | 3-0 | ASEAN Championship |
| Jul 27, 2026 | Cambodia(home) | 5-1 | ASEAN Championship |
| Jun 9, 2026 | Mozambique(home) | 1-0 | Friendlies |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 3 meetings: 3 Japan win(s), 0 draw(s), 0 Indonesia win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Jun 10, 2025 | Japan 6-0 Indonesia | World Cup - Qualification Asia |
| Nov 15, 2024 | Indonesia 0-4 Japan | World Cup - Qualification Asia |
| Jan 24, 2024 | Japan 3-1 Indonesia | Asian Cup |
How many goals should we expect?
Japan score 1.9 and concede 0.7 goals per match over their last 15; Indonesia score 1.8 and concede 1.1. The model gives a 50% probability of over 2.5 goals and 51% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Japan | 1.9 | 0.7 | 9 | 5/15 | 6/15 |
| Indonesia | 1.8 | 1.1 | 8 | 3/15 | 8/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Japan vs Indonesia?
- The Footlab model makes Japan the favourite at 55%, against 25% for a draw and 20% for Indonesia.
- Where and when is Japan vs Indonesia played?
- Japan vs Indonesia is played on January 11, 2027 at 02:00 PM (UTC) at Panasonic Stadium Suita, in the Asian Cup.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 50% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.