Japan vs Indonesia: prediction and stats
Asian CupGroup Stage - 1Kick-off on January 11, 2027 at 02:00 PM (UTC)Saitama Stadium 2002, Saitama
The Footlab AI model makes Japan the favourite at 60%, against 23% for a draw and 17% for Indonesia. The most likely score is 2-0.
Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome in 54.8% of the 1,754 matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Limited history for at least one of the two teams: read this prediction with caution.
Probabilities recomputed on Oct 9, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Japan vs Indonesia?
Japan is a heavy favourite: 1,854 Elo points against 1,543, a 312-point gap.
Computed by the Footlab AI model from our own data only, with no AI analysis.
Probable lineup for Japan vs Indonesia
Computed by Footlab AI from our own data only: recent lineups, squads and known absences. It does not take the press or last-minute absences into account.
Japan
3-4-2-1- 18A. Ueda
- 10R. Dōan
- 24K. Sano
- 20T. Kubo
- 15D. Kamada
- 11D. Maeda
- 13Keito Nakamura
- 3A. Seko
- 21H. Ito
- 25J. Suzuki
- 1Z. Suzuki
Indonesia
5-4-1- 11R. Oratmangoen
- 14J. Pelupessy
- 8L. Vickery
- 19T. Haye
- 18I. Jenner
- 2K. Diks
- 20E. Baggott
- 17C. Verdonk
- 23Justin Quincy Hubner
- 5R. Ridho
- 1E. Audero
Computed on October 9, 2026 at 12:53 AM (UTC).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Japan have 10 wins, 4 draws and 1 defeat; Indonesia have 7, 4 and 4.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 5, 2026 | New Zealand(home) | 2-1 | Kirin Cup |
| Oct 1, 2026 | Ecuador(home) | 0-0 | Kirin Cup |
| Sep 28, 2026 | Venezuela(home) | 2-1 | Friendlies |
| Sep 24, 2026 | Uruguay(home) | 3-1 | Friendlies |
| Jun 29, 2026 | Brazil(away) | 1-2 | World Cup |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 5, 2026 | Thailand(home) | 2-2 | FIFA Asean Cup |
| Oct 1, 2026 | Bangladesh(home) | 9-2 | FIFA Asean Cup |
| Sep 28, 2026 | Malaysia(away) | 0-0 | FIFA Asean Cup |
| Sep 25, 2026 | Singapore(home) | 2-0 | FIFA Asean Cup |
| Aug 7, 2026 | Singapore(away) | 1-1 | ASEAN Championship |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 3 meetings: 3 Japan wins, 0 draws, 0 Indonesia wins.
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Jun 10, 2025 | Japan 6-0 Indonesia | World Cup - Qualification Asia |
| Nov 15, 2024 | Indonesia 0-4 Japan | World Cup - Qualification Asia |
| Jan 24, 2024 | Japan 3-1 Indonesia | Asian Cup |
How many goals should we expect?
Japan score 1.9 and concede 0.8 goals per match over their last 15; Indonesia score 2.1 and concede 0.9. The model gives a 53% probability of over 2.5 goals and 51% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Japan | 1.9 | 0.8 | 7 | 8/15 | 9/15 |
| Indonesia | 2.1 | 0.9 | 7 | 5/15 | 8/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
A question about Japan vs Indonesia?
Ask Footlab AI: lineups, absences, player form, stats, how the match could unfold.
Sign-in required. No odds displayed, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab AI compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. When bookmakers publish odds for the match, their consensus is built into the calculation: that is what proved most accurate on past matches. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Japan vs Indonesia?
- The Footlab AI model makes Japan the favourite at 60%, against 23% for a draw and 17% for Indonesia.
- Where and when is Japan vs Indonesia played?
- Japan vs Indonesia is played on January 11, 2027 at 02:00 PM (UTC) at Saitama Stadium 2002, in the Asian Cup.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab AI model gives a 53% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome (home win, draw or away win) in 54.8% of the matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing, a level comparable with the bookmakers' favourite. The comparison with bookmakers and the breakdown by competition and Elo gap are published on the accuracy page.