Japan vs Paraguay: prediction and stats
FriendliesFriendly InternationalKick-off on November 17, 2026 at 01:10 PM (UTC)Saitama Stadium 2002, Saitama
The Footlab AI model makes Japan the favourite at 60%, against 24% for a draw and 16% for Paraguay. The most likely score is 1-0.
Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome in 54.2% of the 5,703 matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Nov 14, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Japan vs Paraguay?
Japan starts as the favourite with a 227-point Elo edge (1,854 vs 1,627).
Computed by the Footlab AI model from our own data only, with no AI analysis.
Probable lineup for Japan vs Paraguay
Computed by Footlab AI from our own data only: recent lineups, squads and known absences. It does not take the press or last-minute absences into account.
Japan
3-4-2-1- 18A. Ueda
- 10R. Doan
- 24K. Sano
- 15D. Kamada
- 20T. Kubo
- 11D. Maeda
- 13Keito Nakamura
- 3A. Seko
- 21H. Ito
- 25J. Suzuki
- 1Z. Suzuki
Paraguay
4-4-2- 21R. Morales
- 19J. Enciso
- 11Maurício
- 23M. Galarza
- 20M. Villasanti
- 24G. Caballero
- 6J. Alonso
- 26A. Maidana
- 2A. Benítez
- 25M. Coronel
- 12O. Gill
Computed on November 14, 2026 at 02:39 AM (UTC).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Japan have 10 wins, 4 draws and 1 defeat; Paraguay have 7, 3 and 5.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 5, 2026 | New Zealand(home) | 2-1 | Kirin Cup |
| Oct 1, 2026 | Ecuador(home) | 0-0 | Kirin Cup |
| Sep 28, 2026 | Venezuela(home) | 2-1 | Friendlies |
| Sep 24, 2026 | Uruguay(home) | 3-1 | Friendlies |
| Jun 29, 2026 | Brazil(away) | 1-2 | World Cup |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 13, 2026 | Singapore(away) | 4-1 | Friendlies |
| Oct 3, 2026 | Colombia(away) | 1-0 | Friendlies |
| Sep 27, 2026 | Bolivia(away) | 2-0 | Friendlies |
| Jul 4, 2026 | France(home) | 0-1 | World Cup |
| Jun 29, 2026 | Germany(away) | 1-1 | World Cup |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 5 meetings: 3 Japan wins, 2 draws, 0 Paraguay wins.
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Oct 10, 2025 | Japan 2-2 Paraguay | Friendlies |
| Jun 2, 2022 | Japan 4-1 Paraguay | Friendlies |
| Sep 5, 2019 | Japan 2-0 Paraguay | Friendlies |
| Jun 12, 2018 | Japan 4-2 Paraguay | Friendlies |
| Jun 29, 2010 | Paraguay 0-0 Japan | World Cup |
How many goals should we expect?
Japan score 1.9 and concede 0.8 goals per match over their last 15; Paraguay score 1.4 and concede 1.1. The model gives a 51% probability of over 2.5 goals and 49% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Japan | 1.9 | 0.8 | 7 | 8/15 | 9/15 |
| Paraguay | 1.4 | 1.1 | 6 | 7/15 | 7/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
A question about Japan vs Paraguay?
Ask Footlab AI: lineups, absences, player form, stats, how the match could unfold.
Sign-in required. No odds displayed, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab AI compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. When bookmakers publish odds for the match, their consensus is built into the calculation: that is what proved most accurate on past matches. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Japan vs Paraguay?
- The Footlab AI model makes Japan the favourite at 60%, against 24% for a draw and 16% for Paraguay.
- Where and when is Japan vs Paraguay played?
- Japan vs Paraguay is played on November 17, 2026 at 01:10 PM (UTC) at Saitama Stadium 2002, in the Friendlies.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab AI model gives a 51% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome (home win, draw or away win) in 54.2% of the matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing, a level comparable with the bookmakers' favourite. The comparison with bookmakers and the breakdown by competition and Elo gap are published on the accuracy page.