Johvi Phoenix vs Tartu Kalev: prediction and stats
Esiliiga BRegular Season - 26Kick-off on August 29, 2026 at 12:00 PM (UTC)
The Footlab model makes Johvi Phoenix the favourite at 47%, against 19% for a draw and 34% for Tartu Kalev. The most likely score is 2-2.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 25, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Johvi Phoenix vs Tartu Kalev?
A very open match: only 56 Elo points separate Johvi Phoenix (1,215) and Tartu Kalev (1,271).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Johvi Phoenix have 6 wins, 3 draws and 6 defeats; Tartu Kalev have 10, 0 and 5.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 23, 2026 | Luunja(away) | 3-2 | Esiliiga B |
| Aug 20, 2026 | JK Tabasalu(home) | 2-2 | Esiliiga B |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Narva U21(away) | 0-1 | Esiliiga B |
| Aug 9, 2026 | Tallinna Kalev II(away) | 1-3 | Esiliiga B |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Legion(away) | 1-0 | Esiliiga B |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 20, 2026 | Luunja(home) | 2-1 | Esiliiga B |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Parnu JK Vaprus U21(home) | 1-0 | Esiliiga B |
| Aug 11, 2026 | Tallinna Kalev(away) | 0-8 | Cup |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Tulevik(home) | 4-2 | Esiliiga B |
| Aug 1, 2026 | JK Tabasalu(home) | 3-1 | Esiliiga B |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 3 Johvi Phoenix win(s), 0 draw(s), 3 Tartu Kalev win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Jul 4, 2026 | Tartu Kalev 3-2 Johvi Phoenix | Esiliiga B |
| May 1, 2026 | Johvi Phoenix 4-3 Tartu Kalev | Esiliiga B |
| Sep 27, 2025 | Johvi Phoenix 3-1 Tartu Kalev | Esiliiga B |
| Sep 7, 2025 | Johvi Phoenix 1-3 Tartu Kalev | Esiliiga B |
| Aug 30, 2025 | Tartu Kalev 0-1 Johvi Phoenix | Esiliiga B |
| May 3, 2025 | Tartu Kalev 2-0 Johvi Phoenix | Esiliiga B |
Last archived meeting: Tartu Kalev vs Johvi Phoenix on Jul 4, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Johvi Phoenix score 2.0 and concede 1.9 goals per match over their last 15; Tartu Kalev score 3.3 and concede 2.4. The model gives a 85% probability of over 2.5 goals and 82% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Johvi Phoenix | 2.0 | 1.9 | 2 | 11/15 | 10/15 |
| Tartu Kalev | 3.3 | 2.4 | 4 | 10/15 | 13/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Johvi Phoenix sit 3rd in Esiliiga B (28 points from 16 matches) and Tartu Kalev sit 5th (40 points from 24 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | Johvi Phoenix | 16 | 9 | 1 | 6 | 42 | 41 | 28 |
| 5 | Tartu Kalev | 24 | 13 | 1 | 10 | 64 | 46 | 40 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Johvi Phoenix vs Tartu Kalev?
- The Footlab model makes Johvi Phoenix the favourite at 47%, against 19% for a draw and 34% for Tartu Kalev.
- Where and when is Johvi Phoenix vs Tartu Kalev played?
- Johvi Phoenix vs Tartu Kalev is played on August 29, 2026 at 12:00 PM (UTC), in the Esiliiga B.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 85% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.