Luunja vs Tartu Kalev: prediction and stats
Esiliiga BRegular Season - 36Kick-off on November 8, 2026 at 10:30 AM (UTC)Tartu Sepa tänava staadion, Tartu
The Footlab model makes Luunja the favourite at 43%, against 19% for a draw and 38% for Tartu Kalev. The most likely score is 2-2.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 25, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Luunja vs Tartu Kalev?
A very open match: only 97 Elo points separate Luunja (1,194) and Tartu Kalev (1,291).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Luunja have 7 wins, 4 draws and 4 defeats; Tartu Kalev have 10, 0 and 5.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 23, 2026 | Johvi Phoenix(home) | 2-3 | Esiliiga B |
| Aug 20, 2026 | Tartu Kalev(away) | 1-2 | Esiliiga B |
| Aug 10, 2026 | Parnu JK Vaprus U21(home) | 2-2 | Esiliiga B |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Tulevik(away) | 0-0 | Esiliiga B |
| Jul 20, 2026 | Tallinna Kalev II(home) | 5-4 | Esiliiga B |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 20, 2026 | Luunja(home) | 2-1 | Esiliiga B |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Parnu JK Vaprus U21(home) | 1-0 | Esiliiga B |
| Aug 11, 2026 | Tallinna Kalev(away) | 0-8 | Cup |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Tulevik(home) | 4-2 | Esiliiga B |
| Aug 1, 2026 | JK Tabasalu(home) | 3-1 | Esiliiga B |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 2 Luunja win(s), 1 draw(s), 3 Tartu Kalev win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Aug 20, 2026 | Tartu Kalev 2-1 Luunja | Esiliiga B |
| May 16, 2026 | Tartu Kalev 2-2 Luunja | Esiliiga B |
| Apr 19, 2026 | Luunja 0-1 Tartu Kalev | Esiliiga B |
| Sep 28, 2024 | Tartu Kalev 1-4 Luunja | Esiliiga B |
| Jul 20, 2024 | Luunja 7-1 Tartu Kalev | Esiliiga B |
| Jun 3, 2024 | Luunja 1-3 Tartu Kalev | Esiliiga B |
Last archived meeting: Tartu Kalev vs Luunja on Aug 20, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Luunja score 2.7 and concede 1.8 goals per match over their last 15; Tartu Kalev score 3.3 and concede 2.4. The model gives a 85% probability of over 2.5 goals and 83% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Luunja | 2.7 | 1.8 | 3 | 12/15 | 13/15 |
| Tartu Kalev | 3.3 | 2.4 | 4 | 10/15 | 13/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Luunja sit 3rd in Esiliiga B (44 points from 25 matches) and Tartu Kalev sit 5th (40 points from 24 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | Luunja | 25 | 13 | 5 | 7 | 67 | 51 | 44 |
| 5 | Tartu Kalev | 24 | 13 | 1 | 10 | 64 | 46 | 40 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Luunja vs Tartu Kalev?
- The Footlab model makes Luunja the favourite at 43%, against 19% for a draw and 38% for Tartu Kalev.
- Where and when is Luunja vs Tartu Kalev played?
- Luunja vs Tartu Kalev is played on November 8, 2026 at 10:30 AM (UTC) at Tartu Sepa tänava staadion, in the Esiliiga B.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 85% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.