Kashiwa Reysol vs Gamba Osaka: prediction and stats
J-League CupRound of 16Kick-off on October 3, 2026 at 10:00 AM (UTC)SANKYO FRONTIER Kashiwa Stadium, Kashiwa
The Footlab model makes Gamba Osaka the favourite at 43%, against 24% for a draw and 33% for Kashiwa Reysol. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 26, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Kashiwa Reysol vs Gamba Osaka?
A very open match: only 2 Elo points separate Kashiwa Reysol (2,024) and Gamba Osaka (2,022).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Kashiwa Reysol have 7 wins, 1 draws and 7 defeats; Gamba Osaka have 7, 4 and 4.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 21, 2026 | V-varen Nagasaki(home) | 4-2 | J1 League |
| Aug 14, 2026 | Tokyo Verdy(away) | 3-1 | J1 League |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Mito Hollyhock(home) | 2-1 | J1 League |
| Aug 1, 2026 | JEF United Chiba(away) | 0-0 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jun 6, 2026 | Kyoto Sanga(home) | 0-1 | J1 League |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Nagoya Grampus(away) | 1-3 | J1 League |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Mito Hollyhock(away) | 1-1 | J1 League |
| Aug 11, 2026 | Gangwon FC(away) | 1-0 | AFC Champions League Elite |
| Aug 7, 2026 | Urawa(home) | 4-3 | J1 League |
| Jul 15, 2026 | Red Bull Salzburg(away) | 3-0 | Friendlies Clubs |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 2 Kashiwa Reysol win(s), 2 draw(s), 2 Gamba Osaka win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Oct 18, 2025 | Gamba Osaka 0-5 Kashiwa Reysol | J1 League |
| Apr 6, 2025 | Kashiwa Reysol 1-0 Gamba Osaka | J1 League |
| Aug 11, 2024 | Kashiwa Reysol 0-0 Gamba Osaka | J1 League |
| Jun 16, 2024 | Gamba Osaka 2-1 Kashiwa Reysol | J1 League |
| Jul 16, 2023 | Gamba Osaka 3-1 Kashiwa Reysol | J1 League |
| Feb 18, 2023 | Kashiwa Reysol 2-2 Gamba Osaka | J1 League |
Last archived meeting: Gamba Osaka vs Kashiwa Reysol on Oct 18, 2025
How many goals should we expect?
Kashiwa Reysol score 1.5 and concede 1.2 goals per match over their last 15; Gamba Osaka score 1.7 and concede 1.3. The model gives a 63% probability of over 2.5 goals and 65% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kashiwa Reysol | 1.5 | 1.2 | 3 | 6/15 | 6/15 |
| Gamba Osaka | 1.7 | 1.3 | 4 | 9/15 | 8/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Kashiwa Reysol sit 4th in J-League Cup (5 points from 6 matches) and Gamba Osaka sit 1st (10 points from 6 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Gamba Osaka | 6 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 8 | 4 | 10 |
| 4 | Kashiwa Reysol | 6 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 7 | 10 | 5 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Kashiwa Reysol vs Gamba Osaka?
- The Footlab model makes Gamba Osaka the favourite at 43%, against 24% for a draw and 33% for Kashiwa Reysol.
- Where and when is Kashiwa Reysol vs Gamba Osaka played?
- Kashiwa Reysol vs Gamba Osaka is played on October 3, 2026 at 10:00 AM (UTC) at SANKYO FRONTIER Kashiwa Stadium, in the J-League Cup.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 63% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.