Kelty Hearts vs Dumbarton: prediction and stats
League TwoRegular Season - 26Kick-off on February 20, 2027 at 03:00 PM (UTC)New Central Park, Kelty
The Footlab model makes Kelty Hearts the favourite at 52%, against 25% for a draw and 23% for Dumbarton. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 24, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Kelty Hearts vs Dumbarton?
A very open match: only 79 Elo points separate Kelty Hearts (1,528) and Dumbarton (1,449).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Kelty Hearts have 5 wins, 1 draws and 9 defeats; Dumbarton have 3, 0 and 12.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Dumbarton(home) | 3-1 | League Two |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Elgin City(away) | 1-4 | League Two |
| Aug 11, 2026 | Motherwell U21(home) | 4-3 | Challenge Cup |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Stirling Albion(home) | 3-2 | League Two |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Forfar Athletic(away) | 0-1 | League Two |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Kelty Hearts(away) | 1-3 | League Two |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Edinburgh City(home) | 0-3 | League Two |
| Aug 11, 2026 | Airdrie United(home) | 1-3 | Challenge Cup |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Clyde(home) | 1-0 | League Two |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Stirling Albion(away) | 0-2 | League Two |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 2 Kelty Hearts win(s), 2 draw(s), 2 Dumbarton win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Kelty Hearts 3-1 Dumbarton | League Two |
| Sep 23, 2025 | Dumbarton 3-3 Kelty Hearts | Challenge Cup |
| Apr 5, 2025 | Kelty Hearts 0-6 Dumbarton | League One |
| Dec 28, 2024 | Dumbarton 2-0 Kelty Hearts | League One |
| Nov 9, 2024 | Kelty Hearts 2-0 Dumbarton | League One |
| Aug 31, 2024 | Dumbarton 2-2 Kelty Hearts | League One |
Last archived meeting: Kelty Hearts vs Dumbarton on Aug 22, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Kelty Hearts score 1.2 and concede 2.1 goals per match over their last 15; Dumbarton score 0.9 and concede 2.7. The model gives a 54% probability of over 2.5 goals and 56% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kelty Hearts | 1.2 | 2.1 | 1 | 7/15 | 9/15 |
| Dumbarton | 0.9 | 2.7 | 2 | 6/15 | 10/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Kelty Hearts sit 4th in League Two (6 points from 4 matches) and Dumbarton sit 9th (3 points from 4 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | Kelty Hearts | 4 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 7 | 8 | 6 |
| 9 | Dumbarton | 4 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 8 | 3 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Kelty Hearts vs Dumbarton?
- The Footlab model makes Kelty Hearts the favourite at 52%, against 25% for a draw and 23% for Dumbarton.
- Where and when is Kelty Hearts vs Dumbarton played?
- Kelty Hearts vs Dumbarton is played on February 20, 2027 at 03:00 PM (UTC) at New Central Park, in the League Two.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 54% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.