Kitchee vs Hong Kong FC: prediction and stats
Premier LeagueRegular Season - 5Kick-off on October 10, 2026 at 08:00 AM (UTC)Mong Kok Stadium, Hong Kong
The Footlab model makes Kitchee the favourite at 82%, against 11% for a draw and 7% for Hong Kong FC. The most likely score is 3-0.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 25, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Kitchee vs Hong Kong FC?
Kitchee is a heavy favourite: 1,685 Elo points against 1,205 — a 480-point gap.
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Kitchee have 9 wins, 3 draws and 3 defeats; Hong Kong FC have 2, 1 and 12.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | BC Rangers(away) | 3-2 | Premier League |
| Jul 29, 2026 | Prime Bangkok(away) | 4-0 | Friendlies Clubs |
| May 17, 2026 | Eastern(home) | 4-4 | Premier League |
| May 2, 2026 | Wofoo Tai Po(away) | 0-3 | Premier League |
| Apr 25, 2026 | North District(away) | 2-2 | Premier League |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Southern District(away) | 2-3 | Premier League |
| May 16, 2026 | Kowloon City(away) | 1-1 | Premier League |
| May 10, 2026 | BC Rangers(home) | 2-1 | Premier League |
| May 3, 2026 | Southern District(home) | 1-4 | Premier League |
| Apr 25, 2026 | Eastern District(away) | 2-1 | Premier League |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 6 Kitchee win(s), 0 draw(s), 0 Hong Kong FC win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Mar 1, 2026 | Kitchee 5-2 Hong Kong FC | Premier League |
| Jan 11, 2026 | Hong Kong FC 1-2 Kitchee | Premier League |
| Apr 26, 2025 | Kitchee 3-1 Hong Kong FC | Premier League |
| Feb 16, 2025 | Hong Kong FC 1-3 Kitchee | Premier League |
| Dec 8, 2024 | Kitchee 3-1 Hong Kong FC | Sapling Cup |
| Oct 5, 2024 | Kitchee 4-0 Hong Kong FC | Premier League |
Last archived meeting: Kitchee vs Hong Kong FC on Mar 1, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Kitchee score 2.3 and concede 1.4 goals per match over their last 15; Hong Kong FC score 1.0 and concede 2.7. The model gives a 81% probability of over 2.5 goals and 61% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kitchee | 2.3 | 1.4 | 6 | 8/15 | 11/15 |
| Hong Kong FC | 1.0 | 2.7 | 0 | 10/15 | 11/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Kitchee sit 1st in Premier League (52 points from 22 matches) and Hong Kong FC sit 5th (11 points from 22 matches).
The current season has no played match yet: final standings of the 2025-26 season.
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Kitchee | 22 | 16 | 4 | 2 | 54 | 28 | 52 |
| 5 | Hong Kong FC | 22 | 3 | 2 | 17 | 18 | 60 | 11 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Kitchee vs Hong Kong FC?
- The Footlab model makes Kitchee the favourite at 82%, against 11% for a draw and 7% for Hong Kong FC.
- Where and when is Kitchee vs Hong Kong FC played?
- Kitchee vs Hong Kong FC is played on October 10, 2026 at 08:00 AM (UTC) at Mong Kok Stadium, in the Premier League.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 81% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.