La Calzada vs San Marcial: prediction and stats
Tercera División RFEF - Group 16Group 16 - 9Kick-off on November 1, 2026 at 04:00 PM (UTC)Estadio El Rollo, Santo Domingo de la Calzada
The Footlab model makes La Calzada the favourite at 41%, against 26% for a draw and 33% for San Marcial. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 25, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win La Calzada vs San Marcial?
A very open match: only 19 Elo points separate La Calzada (1,671) and San Marcial (1,690).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, La Calzada have 3 wins, 5 draws and 7 defeats; San Marcial have 5, 5 and 5.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 19, 2026 | Mirandes(home) | 0-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Aug 15, 2026 | San Ignacio(home) | 1-4 | Friendlies Clubs |
| May 10, 2026 | Pradejón(home) | 3-1 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 16 |
| May 3, 2026 | Anguiano(away) | 0-1 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 16 |
| Apr 26, 2026 | Haro Deportivo(home) | 0-0 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 16 |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| May 10, 2026 | Anguiano(home) | 0-2 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 16 |
| May 3, 2026 | Haro Deportivo(away) | 0-0 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 16 |
| Apr 26, 2026 | Agoncillo(home) | 4-3 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 16 |
| Apr 18, 2026 | Villegas(away) | 2-2 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 16 |
| Apr 12, 2026 | Calahorra(home) | 0-4 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 16 |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 2 meetings: 0 La Calzada win(s), 1 draw(s), 1 San Marcial win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Mar 8, 2026 | San Marcial 2-2 La Calzada | Tercera División RFEF - Group 16 |
| Oct 25, 2025 | La Calzada 0-1 San Marcial | Tercera División RFEF - Group 16 |
Last archived meeting: San Marcial vs La Calzada on Mar 8, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
La Calzada score 0.9 and concede 1.7 goals per match over their last 15; San Marcial score 1.3 and concede 1.9. The model gives a 54% probability of over 2.5 goals and 58% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| La Calzada | 0.9 | 1.7 | 4 | 8/15 | 8/15 |
| San Marcial | 1.3 | 1.9 | 5 | 6/15 | 8/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
La Calzada sit 12th in Tercera División RFEF - Group 16 (38 points from 34 matches) and San Marcial sit 11th (39 points from 34 matches).
The current season has no played match yet: final standings of the 2025-26 season.
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 | San Marcial | 34 | 10 | 9 | 15 | 39 | 59 | 39 |
| 12 | La Calzada | 34 | 10 | 8 | 16 | 39 | 55 | 38 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for La Calzada vs San Marcial?
- The Footlab model makes La Calzada the favourite at 41%, against 26% for a draw and 33% for San Marcial.
- Where and when is La Calzada vs San Marcial played?
- La Calzada vs San Marcial is played on November 1, 2026 at 04:00 PM (UTC) at Estadio El Rollo, in the Tercera División RFEF - Group 16.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 54% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.